Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 231122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to Medium chance of wind gusts above 40 mph Sunday afternoon

- Moderate risk of rip currents Sunday

Ridging will persist aloft through tonight, before the flow
becomes more southwesterly Sunday, ahead of the next mid to upper
level trough digging into the Southern Plains. At the surface,
high pressure will continue to shift eastward throughout the day
today, allowing for onshore flow to resume by the evening. A
developing surface low over the Central Plains will lead to a
tighter pressure gradient across South Texas Sunday afternoon.
Breezy to windy conditions will be possible, especially across
the coastal counties where HREF probabilities indicate a 50-80%
chance of wind gusts above 35 mph, and a 20-40% of gusts above 40
mph over the immediate coast south of Port Aransas. If this trend
persist, we will have to consider the issuance of Wind Advisories
on later forecast packages.

Although generally dry conditions are expected through the
period, not anticipating any Elevated or Critical fire weather
concerns as minimum relative humidity values are likely to stay
above criteria at the time of the strongest winds.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible around high tide tonight
mainly due to higher astronomical tides as full moon approaches in
addition to a moderate easterly flow. In terms of the rip currents
risk, it will be Moderate across area beaches on Sunday as onshore
flow strengthens by the afternoon.

Near normal temperatures can be expected through Sunday, although
highs will run a few degrees warmer on Sunday. The only exception
will be out west, where above normal temperatures will be possible
by tomorrow afternoon. Highs will range from the low 70s along the
coast to the low 80s out west today, and in the low 70s to mid 80s
on Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s inland to
the mid 60s along the coast tonight. Cloud coverage will gradually
increase throughout the period, as onshore flow resumes and
brings back moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance of wind gusts over 40 MPH Sunday night into
  Monday

- Potential for coastal flooding concerns early next week

We start out the long term with an upper level trough digging into
Northern Mexico before lifting across the Plains as we head into the
work week. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen across the Southern
Plains late Sunday into Monday. This will lead to a strengthening
southerly flow as the pressure gradient tightens. Latest guidance
continues to suggest a medium to high chance for winds gusting in
excess of 40 MPH Sunday night through Monday morning. As the
aforementioned trough moves across the Plains, a series of cold
fronts will head our way. A Pacific front looks to move through
Monday afternoon/evening with a polar front crashing in from the
north late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Our rain chances don`t
look that great as model soundings hang onto a stout cap. However,
if we are able to overcome it, we will have roughly 1,000 J/kg of
CAPE to work with. Currently have just a 20-30% chance across the
Victoria Crossroads where the best upper dynamics will be in play.
With that said, wouldn`t be surprised to see some drizzle or patchy
fog ahead of the boundary as the lower levels of the atmosphere will
be very saturated.

By the middle of the week, a surge of high pressure arrives as
another trough ejects across the Plains. This will keep a north-
northeasterly flow in place for much of the work week. The surface
high begins to move across the southeast US late in the work week
which will allow for onshore flow to return to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through this evening across
area terminals. Increased moisture over the region will bring back
a low cloud deck out west by early Sunday morning. TEMPO MVFR
conditions will be possible at LRD/COT between 08-12Z Sunday.
Otherwise, light and variable east to northeasterly winds this
morning will shift to the southeast by tonight as a surface high
pressure drifts eastward and away from the area. Winds may
increase to above 12 knots this afternoon, before diminishing
quickly after sunset, except out west where winds will remain
elevated overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the bays and
nearshore waters south of Port Aransas and all offshore waters
through 7 AM. Winds will diminish throughout the day today, but
exercise caution conditions will persist offshore through midday.
Onshore flow returns this evening. Winds will increase once again
Sunday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Sunday
through Monday morning. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday as a cold front moves
offshore. A weak to moderate northerly flow will develop in the
wake of the front and continue through Tuesday afternoon before
becoming east-northeasterly through late this work week. Onshore
flow looks to return late Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  61  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          78  57  77  66 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            83  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             81  58  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          75  64  76  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           82  59  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  60  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  66  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     250-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...ANM/88


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