297
FXUS64 KCRP 021810
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
110 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A largely uneventful forecast is expected during the short term
period.

Regional radar imagery indicates that deep convection has
remained well north of San Antonio tonight. Therefore, the
likelihood of thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads early
this morning is very low (less than 20%). The only other low
chance for precipitation will be Friday afternoon over La Salle
and Webb Counties. This low chance will be dependent on whether
there will be sufficient forcing from mesoscale boundaries to
support the development of robust updrafts.

Warm temperatures and abundant low level moisture will result in
maximum apparent temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s
today and Friday. These conditions will be a precursor to the
increasing risk for heat related impacts next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the long term period as
moisture will be confined to a shallow surface layer...that will
gradually get even more shallow as we head into next week.  For
Saturday, there is still the potential for an isolated storm coming
out of the Sierra Madre and across into the Rio Grande Plains,
however chances are low (10-20%). Beyond Saturday, winds above
the surface shifting more to the south and southwest will bring
drier conditions in the lower levels to leave only moisture
confined to only within a couple thousand feet of the
surface...and in the upper levels (maintaining some high cloud
cover). This drier layer will also result in warming temperatures
through next week. We`ll start the week on Monday with highs
around 100 west and in the upper 80s and lower 90s east. We`ll
quickly warm above 100 west through mid- week with highs
approaching 110 by Thursday. If this verifies it would be our
first high temperatures above 100 for the season. The risk of heat
related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week,
especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected
west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat
index values will likely top 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Expect a transition from predominate MVFR early this afternoon to
predominate VFR late this afternoon/evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions, may develop later
this afternoon/evening over South Texas, yet very difficult to
determine timing and location. A transition to predominate MVFR
ceilings expected tonight through the remainder of the TAF period.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow this afternoon/evening
becoming light onshore overnight/early Friday, followed by weak to
moderate approximately east flow toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
weekend and into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          87  73  86  72 /  20  10  10  10
Laredo            95  76  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
Alice             90  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
Rockport          85  75  84  75 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           92  75  94  75 /  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        88  75  88  75 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       85  77  85  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...WC/87