118
ACUS48 KWNS 290845
SWOD48
SPC AC 290844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi
Valley...
Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains
northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a
relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and
moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support
organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to
evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one
or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread
cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm
sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves
into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential
influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a
15% area.

...D5/Friday into D8/Monday...
Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly
by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move
southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily
destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for
either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be
drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite
uncertain into early next week.

..Dean.. 04/29/2024