Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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594 FXUS63 KDLH 072326 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 626 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with isolated strong thunderstorms mainly south of US Highway 2. The stronger storms could produce nickel-sized hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. - Fog is expected to form tonight. - Frost is possible (60% chance) in the Arrowhead Wednesday night. A freeze is likely in NW WI Thursday night. - Two weak clippers cross over the area bringing light rain Friday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A fairly large and dynamic low pressure to our west is rotating bands of rain and thunderstorms north into our forecast area this afternoon. Clearing behind a warm front this morning and the subsequent heat loss from precipitation and lack of insolation due to cloud cover has set up a baroclinic zone with a secondary warm front lifting north this afternoon. A sliver of MUCAPE sneaks northward into the southern portion of our forecast area peaking out around 1500 J/kg per the latest RAP analysis in concert with 20 kts of 0-6 km shear. This gives a bit of a stronger thunderstorm threat albeit isolated to our southern border which is pretty close to where the SPC marginal risk is for this afternoon though I may have extended that line a bit more west into Aitkin County. Most storms should be run of the mill, but there may be some overachievers. Luckily the window for good convection isn`t too large and the stronger storm threat decreases greatly after 00Z. The rain that does or has fallen will saturate the BL overnight causing fog to form though it may be just a low stratus deck as the waves of precipitation that rotated north over us today sag back south again overnight bringing low clouds and possibly drizzle in concert with the fog. High pressure builds Wednesday with skies clearing overnight causing temperatures to plunge and this will give the potential for frost in the MN Arrowhead on Wednesday night. An even deeper plunge into sub-freezing temperatures across NW WI occurs Thursday night and will likely need some frost/freeze headlines. Afterwards, it`s active, but not too bad with clipper systems expected Friday and Sunday. Each of these are warm enough for just plain rain, but also not a lot of rain <0.5" per system and probably less than 0.25" for most places. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A line of showers and storms is entering from the south this evening. Severe weather is looking less likely as the evening rolls on but we have had a few reports of pea sized hail and some gusts from storms of around 40 kts. This activity will taper off over the next few hours with showers dissipating around midnight. Overnight, some fog may develop with the better chances near Lake Superior. Tomorrow, drizzle and sprinkles will move north to south with easterly winds through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Still expecting some occasional gales along the North Shore this afternoon so keeping the gale up there, but did trim off the southern portion of it. Small crafts follow with a little break early Wednesday before winds and waves build again. We may flirt with gales near the Twin Ports again Wednesday afternoon in strong northeasterly flow. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ140>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Wolfe