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000
FXUS63 KDVN 160926
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
426 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are expected today and tonight in
  several rounds. All hazards are possible.

- Warm conditions today with cooler readings late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As of 3 AM, the strong surface low is in the central Plains with
a warm front eastward across MO and southern IL. The warm front
was lifting north early this AM and was just south of the CWA in NE
MO. Some very spotty showers have popped up across eastern IA
and central IL. The main cluster of activity was west across
western and central IA and north central MO. Some of this
activity early this morning could intensify toward daybreak
with a hail risk.

Later this morning and through the afternoon is when the main
wave of activity will move through the area. The warm front is
expected to lift north of I-80 by midday and into the Highway
20 corridor by early evening. Warm and moist air south of the
front will replace the current dry air over the area.
Temperatures will soar into the 60s and 70s with dew point
readings rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. CAPE values of
1500/2500 J/kg are expected along with favorable shear, and
steep lapse rates, which would support convection. Have leaned
on CAMS for POP trends and timing of waves of activity. It
appears that a broken line of storms will develop over south
central IA into north central MO around 10 AM to noon and then
this will move NE into the SW and W CWA during the early
afternoon hours. The band of storms will track NE across the
area between 1 PM and 5 PM. Now, a secondary line of storms,
possibly stronger, is expected to develop in central IA in the
late afternoon. This line of storms will track across the area
between 5 and 9 PM. So, it should be noted that there may be a
lull after the first wave and more, possibly stronger, storms
will move through in the commute time into mid evening.

Strong southeast winds will continue through the day with gusts
to around 40 MPH. Some higher gusts will be possible, especially
in the NW CWA. Opted to hold off on a wind advisory since the
higher gusts may be convectively induced and don`t want to
convolute the message. Later shifts may readdress this.

The SPC has much of the CWA in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of
5) area; with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the E and NE
parts of the CWA including Freeport, Sterling, and Princeton,
IL. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be
possible.

As prior shifts indicated, a possible third line of convection
may move through after midnight into Wednesday morning.
Confidence remains low on this occurrence, but it this were to
materialize, this line of convection could bring along a wind
and tornado threat again. CAMS are not showing much with this
wave, thus the low confidence.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible through
midday Wednesday. Some of the higher totals are slated to fall
NW of a line from Iowa City to Freeport, which will be
beneficial to the drought areas in IA. Depending on the rainfall
rates some localize flooding is possible, especially in urban
areas. Rises on creaks and streams will also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another wave comes through on Thursday with mainly showers. This
is rather progressive with generally under a quarter inch of
rain. Colder temperatures will be seen the end of the week and
into the weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A strong low pressure system will track into western Iowa today
lifting a warm front northward through the area. It will move
into SE MN tonight with a cold front pushing eastward through
the region. Strong ESE winds will be seen this morning with
gusts increasing to 30 to 35 kts. Some showers will be possible
closer to sunrise, especially near BRL. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to work east across the area from
late morning through late afternoon/early evening along with the
cold front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes all possible. These are
currently expected to impact the terminals from 2pm to 6pm when
MVFR or IFR visibilities and ceilings will be seen with the
storms along with variable gusts around 35 to 40 kts. After the
storms move through, winds will become southerly but will remain
gusty.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...14