124
ACUS01 KWNS 080112
SWODY1
SPC AC 080111

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening.  A few tornadoes
(some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds
are all possible.

...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South...
Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast
lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary
shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue
moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a
larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later
tonight into parts of the Mid South.

A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across
parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel
lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will
continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally
1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected
through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH
generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat,
including some potential for strong tornadoes.

Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and
western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms
encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent
will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated
severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR
and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region.

...Southeast KS into southwest MO...
Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into
southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to
suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the
warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and
sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and
strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 05/08/2024

$$