993
FXUS63 KEAX 062332
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather expected tonight as a squall line moves through
  the area from Kansas late this evening into Tuesday morning.
  Strong straight-line winds and a tornado or two are the main
  threats.

- Additional rainfall could lead to more flash flooding and
  river flooding in localized areas.

- Another round of severe weather is possible for Wednesday afternoon
  with hail and strong winds being the primary concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

There is a strong, negatively-titled trough to the northwest of the
region. As of 19Z, radar shows a line of thunderstorms along the
boundary building over eastern KS and moving east. Storms are
forecasted to intensify as the environment becomes more favorable
with diurnal heating and southerly winds advecting warm, moist air
out ahead of the surface cold front. The main threats with these
storms at this include damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The strong trough over the Northern Plains is expected to continue
its track moving to the north-northeast while becoming more
negatively-titled. The upper level jet is expected to round the base
of the trough later this evening placing our area in a divergent
region of the jet. At the lower levels, winds will continue to shift
more southerly as our area gets deeper into the warm sector of the
associated surface warm front. Southerly winds will help to advect
warm, moist air from the Gulf increasing the instability for our
area this will lead to CAPE values above 2,000 J/kg. In addition to
instability, bulk shear values are expected to exceed 50 knots. The
associated cold front is expected to continue moving east over KS
through the day. Thunderstorms have already developed along the cold
front over central KS and along the dry line extending into western
OK. That cold front will move into eastern KS this evening with
thunderstorms expected to enter our area around 01Z. We are
confident in severe weather occurring this evening given the
combination of CAPE and shear. As a 850mb jet is expected to
intensify late this evening this will increase the curvature of the
hodograph, enhancing the tornado potential with the line as it is
moving through. Despite the tornado risk, damaging straight-line
winds are the most likely hazard and we could see winds of 75-80 mph
with the line. With PWATs above 1.5", there is a chance for some
flash and river flooding; however, since storms are expected to be
fairly progressive, any flooding is expected to be localized. Storms
are anticipated to move to the east of our region after midnight.

By sunrise, storms will have moved out of our area over eastern MO.
Winds will briefly shift to the west with the passing frontal
boundary resulting in high temperatures staying in the mid to upper
70s. The upper level trough will continue to push north and stagnate
over MT/ND/SD border Tuesday afternoon. The trough is then expected
to split with the western half of the trough moving southwest
dipping into the Four Corners region.

The eastern trough is anticipated to move southeast over western NE
early Wednesday morning. In the lower levels, winds will briefly
shift to the south with the surface low to the northwest. This will
help to build instability with warm, moist air advecting from the
Gulf. Dew point temperatures will range from the low 50s to low 60s
with higher dew points south of I-70. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible late Wednesday afternoon for central MO with the
passage of the associated surface cold front. CAPE values surpassing
1,000 J/kg suggest there will be enough instability for storm
formation. Decent shear is present with bulk shear values in excess
of 50 knots which will give us the better potential for severe
weather. Strong winds and hail seem to be the main concerns at this
time. Some uncertainty exists with the more favorable area for
thunderstorm initiation being to the southeast of our area. We will
continue to monitor this system as it approaches.

For the second half of the week, expect a break from the severe
weather. There may be a few chances for some rain through the
weekend. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s
to mid 70s into the weekend. Winds then shift to the south for the
start of next week which will result in a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Line of thunderstorms developing in central Kansas is expected
to move through the KC terminals between 03z and 06z, with a
brief period of sub-VFR in heavy rain and strong wind gusts.
Precipitation should quickly move off to the east thereafter,
with dry conditions the rest of the night. There is around a 30
percent chance of a brief period of low clouds and/or fog around
daybreak at the terminals. Was not confident enough to include
in the 00z TAFs, but will monitor for this potential after
storms move through. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with
southwest winds 5 to 15 kt overnight into Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CMS