094
AXPZ20 KNHC 160241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N106W to 05N118W. The
ITCZ resumes from 05N118W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 80W
and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 110W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate winds prevail across the waters off the Baja California
peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, reaching
locally fresh speeds off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds
are in the Gulf of California, except moderate to locally fresh
winds gap winds in the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the
Gulf of California...reaching 4 ft at the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas or
less, will prevail off the Baja California waters through this
week and into the upcoming weekend, pulsing to locally strong
near Cabo San Lucas tonight. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh
gap winds will push through the mountain passages of Baja
California into the Gulf of California at night through Thu
night. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are
expected elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico
through late this week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
several hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
within the next couple of days. Gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or
northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week. Regardless of development, increasing winds and seas
are possible across that area toward the end of the week and into
the upcoming weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except up to 6 ft offshore Ecuador
to the Galapagos Islands. Active convection persists from
offshore Colombia to the waters south of Costa Rica, with the
potential for locally higher winds and seas there.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 4-6 ft
through the remainder of the week, building to 6-8 ft offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
several hundred nautical miles to the south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec within the next couple of days, possibly increasing
winds and seas in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador toward the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds north of 08N to near
22N and west of 115W. Seas in this area are in the 5-7 ft range.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough
where seas are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 7 ft south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone north of the
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W through the forecast period.
Winds will freshen in the tradewind zone north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W later in the week, locally strong at times. The NE
wind waves generated from these trades will mix with a set of
southerly swell to build seas to 7-9 ft by the end of the week
through the weekend. A couple of sets of northerly swell may
approach 30N by Fri afternoon, possibly building seas to around 8
ft north of 28N at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
several hundred nautical miles to the south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec within the next couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest
or northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through
early next week. Regardless of development, increasing winds and
seas are possible across that area toward the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL