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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
547 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Other than isolated showers and storms across far northeastern
areas this afternoon, quiet conditions are expected into next
week. Breezy and dry weather is forecast for much of next week
with increasing fire danger late in the period. After a brief
cool down on Sunday, temperatures rebound to above normal early in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The backdoor cold front has stalled just west of the Rio Grande
Valley, indicated by a decent dew point gradient (30s/40s to the
east and teens to the west). An approaching shortwave trough will
try to kick off some weak convection this afternoon along our
northern CWA border, but forcing and moisture are pretty meager.
There actually is some instability (up to 500 J/kg SFC CAPE) and
shear (25-30kt bulk) modeled across the northern San Andres and
northern Otero county. The dry lower levels will prove difficult
for rain to reach the ground, but gusty downdrafts/outflows are
possible, as well as dry lightning. QPF is expected to be light
with any storms that develop as they progress to the east-
southeast. The Sacs, east slopes especially, have the best chance
at getting a storm during the afternoon. By sunset, the shortwave
moves off to the east with drier air moving in from the west,
largely ending the threat of any convection.

Meanwhile, the front sloshes around the Rio Grande during the day
with relatively moist, easterly winds continuing to the east and
dry, westerlies to the west. Sunday will be quiet as some of the
surface moisture pushes towards the AZ border with the front. A
mix of sun and clouds is expected with some cumulus buildup during
the afternoon.

Weak ridging builds in for the first half of next week with a
minor wave passing to the south Sunday night. This feature should
produce mid-high cloud cover for Monday but will otherwise not
have any impact. For Tuesday, our winds shift westerly and become
breezier as the ridge is nudged eastward by an approaching upper
low. This system opens up into a shortwave trough on Wednesday
while moving into the SW US. It is modeled to swing through the
Four Corners region into Thursday, inducing a 995-ish mb lee
cyclone in SE CO and surface troughing through NM. Breezy to windy
conditions are forecast for Thursday as the surface low
strengthens. Breezy west winds persist on Friday before another
more potent trough moves into the region for next weekend,
bringing a shot at strong winds.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler for today with the shortwave
passage and lingering cold front, decreasing some more for Sunday.
After that, we warm back to above normal by midweek underneath
the ridge. Then, temperatures cool slightly each day later in the
week behind the two upper troughs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Thick cirrus
over northeastern areas is in place to begin the period ahead of
a trough. These clouds should clear out this morning. Low clouds
(<1000 feet AGL at KSRR) behind the backdoor front have moved into
the Sacs overnight and should hold for much of the day. Isolated
showers may develop around KTCS during the afternoon with a slight
chance of gusty outflow winds. Radar trends will be monitored
this afternoon for possible amendments. Otherwise, SKC-FEW250
expected.

Generally light winds this AM with some gusts developing for the
afternoon, earlier for KLRU. E winds expected for KELP and mostly
at KLRU; W winds for KDMN; and more uncertain for KTCS since the
front is very close by.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through Monday, then increasing
later next week. For today, dry lightning is a concern for
northern areas of FWZs 112 and 113 during the afternoon. There is
a slight chance of a few dry thunderstorms, in addition to gusty
outflow/downdraft winds, especially along the east slopes of the
Sacs. However, added surface moisture from the backdoor cold front
may help alleviate those concerns. Dry and modestly breezy
conditions contribute to areas of elevated fire danger for today
west of the Rio Grande. Some of that moisture filters into western
areas for Sunday, allowing min RHs to mostly climb above critical
levels through Monday.

We dry out from Tuesday onward as winds shift to westerly. Winds
increase a bit as well with 20-ft winds near 15 mph Tues- Wed,
resulting in elevated-near critical fire weather according to our
RFTI grids. Two upper troughs then move through the region later
next week, increasing winds to critical levels (20-25 mph at
20-ft) starting on Thursday. RFTI rises to mostly near-critical
category as fuels continue to dry, including in the mountains.

Min RHs will be 15-40% today east of the Rio Grande, 7-15% west;
15-35% everywhere Sunday and Monday; then 7-15%. Vent rates range
from poor in FWZ 113 to excellent west of the Rio Grande today,
then fair to very good Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            75  45  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               88  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               80  45  76  45 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  35  55  34 /  30  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    83  50  77  51 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   86  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                73  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             84  46  77  47 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               73  44  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   83  48  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             83  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  51  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            83  45  77  44 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    86  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                77  46  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  36  61  37 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero                67  38  66  39 /  30  20   0   0
Timberon                 65  35  63  35 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  75  43  72  44 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                82  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                82  45  78  44 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  43  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  48  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  80  46  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  51  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson