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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232346
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
546 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Breezy to windy conditions will be the norm through Saturday. The
windiest days will be Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will
remain near or slightly above normal for the next week as well.
The only chance for precipitation will be in the Gila region on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Typical spring pattern across the region over the upcoming week
with wind the main impact. Upper ridge currently over the area
will slowly be shifting east as an upper low moves into the Great
Basin area. This will increase southwesterly flow over the
Borderland for the next couple of days with winds on the increase,
especially Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Thursday, but looks slightly cooler tomorrow compared to today due
to increasing high clouds. On Thursday, upper low opens up and
moves across the Four Corners region as a trough with upper jet
around our area. H85 winds increase to around 30KTS areawide and
looking at forecast soundings, speeds don`t increase drastically
aloft. Mean sustained wind speeds on the NBM are around 30KTS for
the lowlands with gusts 40-45KTS. Looks like a widespread wind
advisory event with blowing dust and possibly wind warning for
some area mountains.

For Friday, as the first system exits onto the Centrall Plains,
another trough starts digging in from the west. This will put a
broad upper trough across the region. Temperatures will cool down
to near average for late April, but winds will continue, although
they should remain below even advisory speeds.

Going into Saturday, the upper trough over the west cutss off as
it heads towards the Four Corners region. EC and GFS are coming
more in line with a setup similar to Thursday. Winds will again be
at least approaching wind advisory criteria, direction will be
more westerly however, which could mean a little less impacts from
dust than Thu. The models are also putting out a little QPF over
the Gila region. This storm path isn`t great for much moisture,
but some light rain, or even snow above 7500 feet. Probs of over a
tenth of an inch are negligible, so impacts from precip will be
minimal.

Winds start to decrease Sunday into early next week as jet stream
moves north and southwest flow becomes reestablished. This will
result in temperatures warming but with a more southerly component
to the upper flow, we may start dealing with the dryline moving in
and out by Tuesday. Latest run of the EC has retreated the dryline
Tuesday much more than previous run, so have left pops out of
forecast until Tuesday evening over far SE Hudspeth county.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

P6SM SKC through 12Z then increasing high clouds with SCT-
BKN200-250 by the end of the period. Winds west to southwest will
diminish to around 10 knots between 02-03Z. Stronger wind gusts
may linger at KELP due to east slope effects from nearby
mountains. Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning at 17Z
to 10-15G25-30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Fire weather will be a concern over the coming days as breezy to
very windy conditions will be a daily occurrence through Saturday.
Very dry conditions with RH`s into the single digits and winds of
15 to 35 mph can be expected. The windiest days will be Thursday
and Saturday as a couple of storm systems move through the Four
Corners region. For now will leave the Fire Weather Watch going on
Thursday, with potential for more Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. No
precipitation is expected except for a small chance in the Gila
region on Saturday. Less wind is expected going into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  88  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  87  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               53  84  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  60  44  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    55  83  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  75  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  85  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  82  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  86  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             56  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  81  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             56  84  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  85  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            52  83  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    52  85  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  85  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  83  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  50  75  52  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                45  73  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  76  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  82  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             41  72  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   47  79  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    44  80  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  76  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  51  78  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   52  83  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  83  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  76  51  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen