Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231514
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR FA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOTS OF
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN REGARD TO PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE AND ALSO WINDS
AND TEMPS. AS OF THIS MORNING LOTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. KDVL STILL AT 37F AND HERE IN GRAND FORKS
THE TEMP AT 41F. REGIONAL RADARS NOT PICKING UP TOO MUCH BUT
THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THRU KFAR NOW AND EVEN HAD
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN KGFK. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE PCPN TYPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO MENTION JUST LIQUID TYPE. SO SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING MOVING EAST OF KFAR. OTHERWISE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
FA UNTIL AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN MORE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO VERY LITTLE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200. WITH LESS FALLING SNOW...BLSN ALSO TOUGHER TO GET. THE TEMPS
IN THE 40S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE ALSO SHRUNK THE SNOW PACK
OR CRUSTED IT. THEREFORE ALSO REMOVED THE BLSN MENTIONED TODAY AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REMOVE IT FOR
TONIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK






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