Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231858 AAD
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Cloud cover continues to increase across much of the area, except
for the far northeast. North winds will also continue to increase
a bit over the next few hours with some gusts at times. Made a few
tweaks to account for these.

UPDATE Issued at 955 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Low clouds remain across the northern two thirds of the area.
Increased cloud cover a bit more throughout the day to account for
high clouds moving in from South Dakota and remnant low clouds.
Otherwise forecast is holding nicely as temperatures remain nearly
steady or on a very slow rise, and drier low level air moves in
from the north.

UPDATE Issued at 714 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Clouds continue to sag slowly southward, so have bumped up cloud
amounts through the day today. Models are still advertising a few
breaks in the clouds today, but overall it will probably be more
cloudy than not. If it does stay cloudier, temps across the
southern FA may struggle to rise much over where they are at now.
Later shifts will have to keep an eye on that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Main forecast challenge will be cloud trends today. Current
satellite imagery shows an area of lower clouds seeping from north
to south through the FA. This does have some holes in it, so some
areas may start the day with a little sun while others are
cloudy. Not seeing any fog and with the cool northerly flow, do
not expect too much of it either. The other big story for later
today into tonight is the winter storm system that was forecast to
brush our southern FA tonight into Friday has now shifted further
south again. This results in no snow for this FA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The cooling trend continues for late week into the upcoming
weekend. Winds could be a little gusty on Friday, but with no snow
now expected, it will not result in any travel issues either.
Still looking like there could be some light snow by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, but nothing very significant.

Models continue to indicate a split jet scenario with the northern
stream showing a trof over the Great Lakes region. As the upper trof
propagates eastward...expect a shift in the upper ridge over the
area bringing slightly warmer temperatures. Otherwise...expect
mainly tranquil weather with an occasional shower.

By Tuesday...another low pressure system is expected to develop over
the central plains with an influx of Gulf moisture streaming north.
Models vary greatly as to placement of sfc features so confidence is
low as to where the greatest chances for precipitation are.
Therefore...will continue to follow guidance and go with a blended
soln with respect to POPs for now. Behind the system...expect a
slight cooling trend to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Expect MVFR cigs to improve by this evening and gradually lift
overnight as drier air begins to move in from the north. North
winds will be fairly steady at or above 10 kts through the period
at most locations due to sfc pressure gradient, except for near
KDVL where winds should lighten overnight and MVFR cigs may
redevelop in the early morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...BP



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