Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 311803
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Cumulus clouds are filling back into the sunny areas fairly
quickly now. SPC meso page shows some weak sfc based CAPE from
Pembina to Cando, in the area that had a little sun earlier.
Seeing a good push of bulk shear out ahead of the low, or over
most of eastern ND. With the low in the vicinity, will be watching
SPC page closely for any hints that may indicate funnel or weak
tornado formation. Also very cold temps aloft around the low, so
there are some ingredients to support funnels or weak tornadoes
this afternoon (but mainly west of the Red River Valley).
Otherwise increased cloud amounts a little more too.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Forecast challenges concern pcpn chances/coverage, temperatures
and funnel/weak tornado potential over the far nw this afternoon.
Models overall in good agreement and will follow high resolution
model guidance for pops.

Surface low over the central valley will propagate NW as it phases
with approaching upper low by this evening. By late afternoon
surface low center should be along US/Canadian border area of N central
ND or NW of our forecast area. Later this afternoon LI`s drop
just below zero vcnty low however minimal cape generated by
models. T chances look low but cannot rule it out. At this point
with surface low to our NW and attendant boundaries either north
or west of the area feel there is a low threat for funnel or weak
tornado spin ups but this will need to be monitored if low ends up
farther south and east. Elsewhere arcing rain area should be
across the far north and east of the valley. Dry slotting should
keep the remainder of the FA dry. Temperatures within dry slot
should range not too far from average with much cooler values over
the far north and east.

Upper low will begin to drift east across the northern fa tonight.
best convergence will be across the north with wrap around more
spotty farther south. Minimum temperatures a few degrees either
side of 50 expected.

Low will continue to propagate eastward Wednesday into ontario.
Rain associated with the low will gradually end from west to east
during the day. With much cooler column overhead temperatures will
range 10 to 15 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Ridge of high pressure builds in behind departing low. with
clearing and light winds temperatures will drop into the 40s.

Return flow/warm advection sets up mainly from valley west and
with solar temperatures should recover back up close to average.
coolest temperatures will be over the far ne last to see above.

Next digging short wave will bring rain chances back to the
region Thursday night.

Friday to Monday night...Period to start with a short wave that
models have been consistent with, bringing a round of convection to
the area for the first half of the weekend. CHC POPS Friday into
Saturday with eastern areas more likely to see PCPN. Temps for the
period near normal with highs in mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Tricky forecast for the next 24 hours.  IFR cigs Roseau to Bemidji
to Park Rapids to move out of the area early this afternoon as drier
air moves in.  VFR cu field over the RRV and E ND to be replaced
gradually by MVFR cigs this evening as surface low moves toward GFK.
IFR cigs psbl tonight with showers nrn RRV.  Winds will be south to
southwest into the evening and turn northwest in NE ND overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle



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