Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 040353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Issued at 953 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Snow and a bit of sleet continues to move northeastward through
the northern RRV, with some spotty light precip showing up on
radar from that area southeastward towards the precip moving
through central MN. Another band of light snow has been moving
through central ND and should arrive in our CWA after 06Z. There
have been some reports of light freezing rain back behind and to
the south of the main precip band, and there have been some
lowered visibilities in spots. Not getting too much ground truth,
but a spotter reported refreezing melted snow had brought slick
spots in west central MN. Satellite cloud top type does show an
area of supercooled water or mixed phase. Models also show some
signs of drying aloft. Will include a period of freezing drizzle
between the first band of snow lifting through and the next one
coming in from the west. Do not think at this point it will be
long lived enough to warrant headlines, but have some short term
products mentioning slick spots on roads from FZDZ/melted snow
that is refreezing.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Regional radars show that echoes have developed over northeast SD
and are lifting up into the southern Red River Valley. KABR
reported some light rain and ice pellets and the Oakes ND web cam
shows just light snow. This band is expected to continue to lift
NE tonight while another band over western ND moves into the
Devils Lake region later this evening. Between these two bands,
most of the area should pick up a dusting to around an inch or so
of snow tonight into Sunday. Wind speeds will stay fairly gusty
into the evening before decreasing a little bit. A boundary will
move from west to east across the area late tonight into Sunday
and will switch winds from the south to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday night to next Saturday...Models in overall good agreement
with the expected evolution of the weather this next week as the
above normal temperatures end with the first push of cold air this
season. Details during the transition continue to be outside of a
predictability interval to lead to high confidence, so soon to
pinpoint exact locations and snow totals. Confidence is increasing
with the placement of measurable snow occuring across the northern
half of the forecast area with the Devils Lake basin the to have the
most impacts with winter weather conditions starting Monday late
afternoon into Tuesday as snow and blowing snow are expected to
affect the area. In the wake of the system the coldest air of the
season will filter into the northern plains with 850mb temps falling
to minus 15 to 20C. This will result in max temperatures falling
from Monday highs in the 30s to highs around 10 above for Wednesday
into the end of the week.

The weak and rather brief period of 500mb ridging will break down as
a broad long range trough works into the Northern Rockies and then
eastward Sunday into Monday. Associated SFC low pressure will
develop in western ND and move east with snow developing on the
front of the system as WAA takes place. More intense precipitation
is expected on the backside of the SFC low in the deformation zone
expected to track across the Devils Lake basin. The model solns
remain spread out with the EC and SREF quicker and weaker than the
stronger GFS and NAM solns as a result placement and amount of snow
remain in flux.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Some snow moving into the Red River Valley has brought reduced
vis to KFAR and should impact KGFK shortly. Think that the snow
will eventually move northeast so also have a mention at KTVF and
KBJI. Have just 2-5SM for now but some 1SM isn`t out of the
question in heavier bands. Another round of snow will come in from
the west a bit later tonight, but how much it will hold together
is uncertain. Have a mention of -SN at KDVL towards morning but
will wait on the other TAF sites for now. All sites are MVFR or
IFR, and think that the higher categories sites will drop down to
IFR later tonight. Some recovery to MVFR by late in the period
although lower stratus may hang on at the eastern TAF sites a bit
longer. KDVL could actually see some clearing very late in the
period. South winds to southeast winds will be mostly at 10 to 15
kts but some sites near snow could be a bit higher with gusts
above 20 kts for a brief period. Winds will shift to the west by
the end of the period.




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