Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230936
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES...PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS/PHASE AND ONGOING HEADLINES. MODELS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

STACKED LOW VCNTY IA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND FILL DURING THE
DAY. ALL AVAILABLE MESOSCALE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING
DIMINISHING QPF TREND...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAKES SENSE AS
290K SURFACE FROM GFS INDICATING LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BUT ALL AREAS IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. BASED ON
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL BACK OFF A BIT
ON POPS. AS FAR AS PHASE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE MOST PART SUPPORT
RA/SN FOR MEASURABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER DVL BASIN WHERE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING THIS AM IN THE -12 TO -18 LAYER WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF FZDZ. WITH TEMPERATURES BLO 32 AND CURRENTLY GETTING
-RA AND -SN FROM METARS WILL EXTEND WINTER WX ADVISORY TO 10AM
WHICH WILL COVER MORNING COMMUTE. WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY.

ANY RESIDUAL PCPN ENDS FROM W-E OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ANY POPS AFT
06Z. THERMAL ADVECTION RELATIVELY NEUTRAL SO TEMPERATURES WILL
HINGE ON CLOUD TRENDS. AT THIS POINT ANY DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN FA SO HAVE LOWER MINIMUMS THIS AREA.

NEXT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
CHRISTMAS EVE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH MAIN SUPPORT NORTH OF THE
BORDER KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE BORDER AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014


MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW BAND CHRISTMAS
DAY/NIGHT SO CONFINED POPS TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I94. MODEST COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES CHRISTMAS NIGHT HOWEVER MINIMUMS WILL STILL HOLD ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WI FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR OR INTO SE ND/WC MN...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK YET. BEHIND THE SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW AVERAGE. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUT BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST AREAS...WITH SOME PEAKS OF
MVFR AT TIMES. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
2-4SM AT TIMES...AND SOME 1SM IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS SO
INCLUDED THAT AT MOST TAF SITES TOWARDS MORNING. THINK THAT ANY
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MID DAY BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AT 15 KTS OR SO. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 500-700 FT
RANGE AND THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME MIST HANGING AROUND AND KEEPING
VIS DOWN IN THE 3-5SM RANGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR





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