Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND. SURFACE MIXING RATIOS
INCREASING WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AND GOOD PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE
TROUGH. TWEAKED TEMPS UP MAINLY ON THE ND SIDE A BIT WITH SUNSHINE.
ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASED TEMPS IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

TWEAKED WINDS A BIT...HIGHER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS NOW (18Z) EAST OF THE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KTVF AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE NORTH...AND
BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE GUSTY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG



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