Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 141158
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Initial band of rain is developing across northeast South Dakota
into southeast North Dakota. This band is further south than even
the most recent HRRR/HRRRx suggests. Based on this, did adjust the
higher rain chances accordingly. At any rate, this initial band
will likely affect portions of the region through the morning, and
then weaken as the southern forcing takes over when the main upper
level energy gets closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Impacts expected to remain very minimal with the system today.
Rain chances and amounts the main concerns. 00z guidance has
trended slightly slower, south, and weaker compared to previous
model runs...and all models in decent agreement. Strongest forcing
will likely remain near and south of the ND/SD border (water
vapor imagery indicates upper level trough/circulation over Idaho
(09z), propagating eastward). Advection of the colder airmass will
be delayed until after the precip comes to an end, and do not
expect any snowflakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Sunday will mark the beginning of a dry and warm week ahead.
Southerly winds Sunday morning will shift to west/northwesterly
winds by afternoon with the passage of a weak surface trough. As the
main upper level trough progresses eastward Sunday large scale
subsidence is expected across the area, giving way to clearing
skies from west to east throughout the day. Afternoon highs will
remain cool reaching into the mid 50s for eastern North Dakota and
into the upper 40s for western/northwestern Minnesota.

Long term guidance is in relatively good agreement for a warm and
dry period over the upcoming week. A cool start to Monday morning
will see temperatures quickly warm into the low 60s across the
region. By mid week temperatures should level out in the mid to
upper 60s with overnight lows dropping to the mid to upper 40s. Weak
surface troughs/cold fronts are expected to move through the region
Monday and Wednesday, but with a lack of appreciable moisture and
weak, zonal flow aloft no precipitation is expected. However, windy
conditions are possible behind these fronts with northwesterly winds
at 10 to 15 mph.

The next chance for rain will likely not be until the end of the
week and into the weekend. By Friday, stronger southerly return flow
under upper level ridging is expected to allow sufficient moisture
to the region for rain chances on Saturday with the approach of a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR cigs expected through the period. CIGS will lower this
afternoon (4000-8000 feet) before clearing this evening. Freezing
levels will drop to 4K to 8K range and icing will be a hazard.
See aviationweather.gov/icing for the latest icing forecasts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...TG



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