Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM PEMBINA COUNTY
DOWN TOWARDS EDDY. WITH LITTLE SHEAR THE CELLS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING AND NOT LASTING LONG. UPDATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THROUGH AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE MUCH SEVERE GIVEN THE PULSE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN BARNES COUNTY...SO
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...RAMPING
UP TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON AS MORE CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 200. WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF
VCNTY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT AND UPDATED TO TS OR ONSTATION AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO TEMPO YET. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
CONDS WITH LOWER CIGS AT DVL NOW DISSIPATING BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...SPEICHER



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