Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 080355
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a shot wave over the Northwest
Territories and is forecast to move into northern MN by
18Z Fri. Short wave is expected to bring light snow to
northwest MN Fri.

Temps remain fairly steady tonight with clouds covering the area.
Radar continues to show weak returns with no precip reaching the
surface. Precip was moving to the south around 30 knots. Removed
flurries for much of the night. Temps and pops were tweaked
overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Upper level flow was out of the north with a high amplitude ridge
over western North America and trough over eastern Canada. Radar
indicated weak returns over northwest, the far north, and the
southeast zones. Nothing was reaching the ground. Bumped up temps
for tonight with clouds over the area and temps not falling much
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Clouds and light winds to keep temps up overnight across the area
with lows expected to be in the teens, warmest in the west and south
and cooler in the north and east. Attention Friday turns to the next
clipper system coming down in the meridional flow and its snow and
wind impacts. Ahead of the system westerly SFC winds will again
allow a quick temp rise into the upper 20s and even lower 30s along
the valley and to the west before the cold front pushes through and
winds shift to the north. Strongest forcing remains across the
eastern portions of the FA with an inch or two of snow expected east
of a Roseau to Park Rapids line. Flurries and light snow is expected
along and or in the wake of the cold front with some strong gusts
from the NW. Visibilities may be reduced in areas of snow and
blowing snow Friday afternoon especially where the deeper snow pack
exists and if winds are than stronger than forecast. Behind the
front north to northwest winds 20 to 25mph will have gusts in the 25
to 35mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Diminishing winds Friday night. Winds turn southwest Saturday
ahead of the next upper level wave which will track a bit more
south and west than the Friday one. More typical clipper type low
track will bring warm advection light snows late Sunday/Sunday
evening across far NE North Dakota and most of NW Minnesota.
GFS/ECWMF indicate best chc of more than 1 inch of snow Hallock-
Thief River Falls-Bemidji axis. Mild on Sunday ahead of this
system with a west wind and 850 mb temps climbing above 0C over E
ND. Cooler weather behind this system and the rest of next week
through Thursday shows a couple of weak short waves in NW flow
aloft moving thru with chance of light snow/flurries at times,
mainly over NW MN. Temps bounce around day to day a bit milder
ahead of these systems and a bit colder behind it. But no bitter
cold air in the fcst and no big storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions were across much of the area. MVFR conditions were
over the northeast zones with cigs between 10 and 16 hundred ft.
Some flurries/very light snow was over western Ontario. Patches of
MVFR cigs have occurred over parts of the northern zones. Expect
MVFR cigs to spread south over northwest MN and MVFR cigs to
spread south over eastern ND later tonight. Expect MVFR cigs for
Fri.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JH



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