Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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114
FXUS63 KFGF 180554
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1154 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

No changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1001 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A clear sky was across the area. Decreased low tonight a tad.
Otherwise little change to the current grids. Water vapor loop
indicated a trough from northern MN to southwest Ontario. Mostly
west surface wind were across the area. Winds were up higher than
normal for this time of the night.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over the Red
River Valley and extended into MAN. Surface wind shift line was
moving through the area with winds becoming more westerly. Little
change at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Thermal ridge axis will shift east ahead of weak frontal passage
this evening associated with short wave. Global models indicating
some weak qpf across the northern fa however only clouds in the
vicinity are high mid cloud cover so will keep forecast dry.
Column cools overnight however with such warm temperatures today
minimums should be similar to past few days, upper 20s to mid
30s.

A bit cooler column tomorrow however with shrinking snow pack,
surface westerly flow and expected solar temperatures will still
range well above normal although record highs may not be in the
works.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The extended continues to be a mix of well above normal temperatures
to begin the period and trending towards normal by the end. To start
will continue to forecast near record high max and min temps for the
first part of the next week with highs in the southern valley in the
50s through Tuesday. Monday morning lows will actually be in the mid
to upper 40s as a dewpoints climb into the 40s and low 50s south
ahead of a short wave moving into the northern plains. These lows
would be the warmest February lows on record. These dewpoints
moisture will help create enough instabiility to keep the mention of
thunder across the area on Monday.

A clipper/short wave is expected on Wednesday bringing the better
precip chances across the north and lowering temps a good 10
degrees. Then attention will turn to a more moisture laden robust
Colorado low pressure system beginning to evolve Thursday and Friday
across the central plains. Its northern snow shield may impact the
forecast area depending on the strength of the upstream ridging and
its influence on the track and or duration of the system. Definitely
bears watching after a very prolonged quiet period across the
northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A clear sky was across the area. Isolated cirrus clouds were
moving into western ND and will drift across the area overnight.
Increasing clouds Sat as a band of mid level clouds move across
the forecast area. Added patchy fog for late tonight and Sat
morning over the southeast zones as the wind decreases overnight
in the southeast zones. Wind expected to stay up elsewhere
overnight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Hoppes



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