Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170543 AAD
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Adjusted cloud cover down further to reflect IR satellite trends,
nearby weak surface high, and dry air aloft along passing upper
level ridge axis. Surface dew point depressions and winds are not
looking supportive of fog development but will continue to
monitor.

UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Decreased cloud cover across much of the area for tonight,
especially along and west of the river valley. Recent IR
satellite imagery shows only some scattered cirrus mainly over
northwest Minnesota and across the international border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Minimal impacts with the exception of some fog potential. Ci has
covered a good share of the forecast area today. As upper ridge
shifts east tonight and tomorrow we should see less cloud cover as
these clouds shift east. With winds light and clearing there is
some potential for fog development however guidance not very
gungho so at this point will leave out but will have to be
monitored. Very mild column in place so hopefully with more solar
temperatures should be warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday night through next Thursday...
High confidence with the beginning of the period to be well above
normal with max temperatures in the 40s and 50s beginning this
weekend through Tuesday. How warm will depend on snow cover and
clouds during peak heating. Areas in the south may approach 60 on
Monday as 925mb thermal ridge brings 12C to the south and 8C to the
north ahead of a short wave that begins to break down the SW flow
aloft.

Ensemble solns for the Monday system depict a possible 0.20 to 0.40
inches of QPF in a quick moving 6 to 12 hour period as the system
lifts from north to south. Models do show a bit of instability, less
than 250 J/kg, was going to hold off on mentioning the threat given
the unlikely climatological occurrence but agreement from neighbors
on adding the very low risk for thunder seems to trump the window of
reliable predictability. Tuesday into Wednesday upper level flow
becomes more zonal and max temperatures cool back into the 20s and
30s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Cannot completely
rule out fog tonight and Friday night but confidence is low at
this time. Could have some low level wind shear Fri afternoon/evening
due to relatively strong 850mb jet.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...BP



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