Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291222
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
722 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms are lingering in the vicinity of
the cold front this morning. Updated girds to reflect slight
chance in the central Red River Valley to Roseau and south this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Expecting ongoing thunderstorm activity in the far eastern
forecast area will continue to drift east towards sunrise.
However...MUCAPEs will remain elevated through the early morning
hours...but low level jet pushes east. Meanwhile...some
shower/thunderstorm activity has developed in eastern ND close to
the cold front. Believe this rather isolated activity could extend
across the area in the vicinity of the front late in the morning
as well. Otherwise...an upper wave is currently passing to the
north of the area and a cold front is pushing southeast across
eastern ND at this time. The front will reach the far southeastern
forecast area by afternoon...where there could be some
development. The severe threat will depend on where the front is
come mid afternoon. A few CAMs keep thunderstorm activity in the
vicinity of the front from Bemidji to Fargo by early afternoon.
Best chance of anything severe this afternoon will be in
Grant/Otter Tail/Wadena counties where 1000-3000 J/kg of CAPE is
possible...but deep shear will only be around 20 kts. Any
activity that does develop will likely move off to the southeast
by early evening. High pressure will then settle into the area
overnight with clearing skies and lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

On Tuesday...high pressure will dominate with highs mostly in the
70s and sunny skies. On Wednesday...the high shifts east and
an upper ridge begins to build over the area.

A well amplified upper ridge will keep the northern tier dry on
Thursday and Friday before transitioning to a more active pattern
for the weekend as SW flow aloft sets up.  The GFS is more active on
Sat and Sun while the ECMWF is the most bullish on Sun afternoon
through Mon.  Overall blended solution leans toward a GFS solution,
with a front moving through Saturday afternoon.  Expect scattered
storms from Fri night through the weekend as shortwaves embedded in
the SW flow move over the area, but highest confidence at this point
is probably late Sat aftn and Sat evening ahead of the front, which
will drop daytime highs into the low to mid 70s for Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 722 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

MVFR Cigs have been drifting SE along cold front through the Red
River Valley this morning. Updated TAF set reflects this. Believe
the low cigs will make it through BJI by 18Z based on latest
trends. Otherwise...a few showers and thunderstorms may affect BJI
and perhaps FAR this morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Speicher
AVIATION...Knutsvig


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