Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE FA UNDER THE THICKER
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE HOLES OVER THE NORTHEAST FA AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS. TEMPS IN THAT REGION ARE ALREADY AROUND ZERO SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLDEST AGAIN THERE. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DESPITE HAVING CLOUD COVER AT ALL THE TAF SITES THE CEILINGS ARE
ALL IN THE VFR RANGE. MODELS SHOW NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU AT KDVL...WITH SOME LOWERING CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THERE. HOWEVER DESPITE SOME LOWERING HAVE KEPT THE
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON


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