Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250551
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND THE HRRR IS NOT DOING TOO BAD CAPTURING THIS. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE WEAK PRECIP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
DISSIPATING AND THEN THE NEXT STRONGER SNOW BAND MOVES IN...MAINLY
TO OUR SOUTH. TRIED TO SHOW THAT IN THE GRIDS BY TAPERING POPS
DOWN AND THEN BACK UP. ADJUSTED CLOUDS TO INCLUDE THE CLEARING IN
THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NO REPORTS FROM OBS SITES IN OUR
COUNTIES...BUT WEB CAM AT OAKES SHOWS SOME DECENT LIGHT SNOW
FALLING. INCLUDED SOME MEASURABLE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS
CLOUDS. AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING. THE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE PERSISTED IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND HAVE BEEN SPREADING
EAST...BUT SOME STRATUS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE DOWN OUT OF
CANADA. ADJUSTED CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND HAVE THE DROP IN
TEMPS STEADYING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SAT LOOP SHOWS SOME CLEARING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...ALTHOUGH WITH MORE STRATUS SEEN UPSTREAM DO
NOT THINK THE CLEARING WILL LAST ALL NIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
INCLUDE SOME CLEARING FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING...AND LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT IN THAT AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN CWA...SO KEPT LOW POPS AND A SCATTERED FLURRY MENTION
FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTN
WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO WINNIPEG AND POINTS NORTH. RADAR
RETURNS STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNAL PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING
THE GROUND IN AREAS SOUTHWARD INTO NE NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO
DEVILS LAKE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR MEASURABLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN
RRV OVER TO LAKE OF THE WOODS THIS EVENING WITH FLURRIES FURTHER
SOUTH.

OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS AHD OF TROUGH TO LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES/FOG EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO MENTIONED THAT. BY 09Z TROUGH WILL BE IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE EAST PAST BEMIDJI 12Z-15Z PERIOD.
KEPT FLURRIES AND SOME FZDZ EAST OF THE VALLEY THRU CHRISTMAS
MORNING UNTIL FRONT CLEARS AREA AND A BIT COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES.

FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF A NARROW BAND OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING EAST THRU NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THIS BAND BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS NOT THERE IN OUR AREA WITH ONLY 1 INCH PSBL IN FAR
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY MN WITH LIKELY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER EAST TO FERGUS FALLS AND
WADENA.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY OVERNIGHT AND HOPEFUL FOR SOME
CLEARING INTO THE DVL REGION AS COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FRIDAY WILL SEE COLDER AIR MOVING SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN. ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST OF A
BDE-DTL LINE WILL END IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A LOT COLDER THAN WE ARE USED TOO LATELY
WITH LOWS -5F TO 10 ABOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY AND FOR A CHANGE SEASONABLY COLD WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ON
DAY 4. DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPANDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH DAY 8. WHILE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STATIC, THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.

ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING, THEN THE GFS
BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AFTER TUE. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

WILL ADD LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SUN WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ONE TO FIVE DEGREES ON SUN, DECREASED A
DEGREE OR SO FOR MON AND TUE, AND INCREASED FOUR TO ELEVEN DEGREES
ON WED FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

KDVL REMAINS VFR WITH THE DRY AIR REDUCING STRATUS...BUT GIVING
THE STRATUS ON SATELLITE ALREADY MOVING DOWN INTO TOWNER COUNTY TO
THE NORTH IT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. JUDGING BY SAT TRENDS THINK
THAT KGFK AND KFAR COULD GO VFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT THEN GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR AS MORE STRATUS MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH. NOT SO SURE KBJI AND KTVF WILL SEE MUCH
CLEARING...ALTHOUGH KBJI HAS 5000 FT CEILINGS AT THE CURRENT TIME.
THINK THAT TOWARDS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE IFR CIGS...AND ANY
SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TOWARDS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR





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