Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 021754
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

TWEAKED TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...LITTLE COOLER IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN A 25-30 MILE WIDE
BAND WERE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND OR FROM FINLEY ND TO NEAR
PEMBINA ND. CLOUD DECK WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. HOURLY TEMPS
TWEAKED THIS MORNING. WINDS TWEAKED FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WE WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS WITH MANY SITES REPORTING
SOME. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LARGE SCALE FEATURES...AND PREFER THE NAM MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND HOT WITH TEMPS AROUND
90 TODAY...THEN INTO THE LOW PERHAPS MID 90S ON THURSDAY. WE COULD
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
100.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ON FRI/FRI NIGHT...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH A SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO EASTERN ND
AROUND 00Z SAT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IN
THE FAR WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DEEP
SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ TO PROMOTE STRONG TO SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 3...AND THIS FITS WELL WITH
OUR THINKING.

FOR SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAIN A SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES RIDING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW...PROVIDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FIRE
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON SFC BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND HOW
MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. DETAILS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR
ON THE TIMING OF WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/SFC
BOUNDARIES...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS UNSETTLED. SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON LABOR DAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION AS
HIGHS FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 60S BY EARLY WEEK...ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH FOG BURNED OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALL SITES ARE VFR
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A FEW MODELS PUT SOME PATCHY FOG COVERAGE IN FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AGAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE WIND THAN
THIS MORNING...SO THINK IF FOG DOES FORM REDUCED VIS WILL BE VERY
PATCHY AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT AN INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE. WILL
KEEP FOG OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.