Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071816
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
116 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

FCST ABOUT GOING AS EXPECTED. OVERALL THOUGH WENT JUST A TAD
LOWER ON POPS AS SCATTERED PROBABLY MORE THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS
AFTN WORDING VS LIKELY. ONE SHORT WAVE OVER WRN ND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD SHIELD WITH THIS IN CNTRL ND SOUTH OF MINOT HAS
HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THIS AREA AND CAPES ARE LESS. A FEW STORMS HAVE
FORMED ON NRN EDGE OF VORT NORTHWEST OF MINOT WHERE CAPES ARE NR
1500. THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY SRN VALLEY INTO SD/CNTRL MN
LATER TODAY BUT THE BRUNT OF THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA. WATCHING SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAUPHIN
MANITOBA AREA AND THERE IS INCREASING COVERAGE OF T-STORMS WITH
THIS AS EXPECTED AS THIS IS ASSOC WITH COOLER -16C 500 MB TEMPS.
CAPES IN THE RRV/NW MN WITH MORNING SUN AND TEMPS 75 TO 80 HAVE
RISEN TO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE AND WITH THIS COMING DOWN
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SCATTERED T-STORMS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THE AFTN. TIMING OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT THOUGH MAY BE A BIT DELAYED
AND NOT REALLY IMPACT FCST AREA TIL 00Z-06Z PERIOD SO BRIEF FLARE
UP IN ACTIVITY MAY WAIT TIL LATE AFTN-EVE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY IN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL ND AS OF 08Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS INTO THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA...AND ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THE
FORMER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ND DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE ONE
POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND
POSITION OF A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO C MN DURING THE AFTERNOON
MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE NAM DOES SHOW UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE SOUTH...SO IT DOES BEAR WATCHING.
FARTHER NORTH...SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE
PLACE PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE GET
THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW HAIL
OR WIND PRODUCING STORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING. ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT QUITE A FEW DRY HOURS TODAY...WITH
THE 03Z HOPWRF DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DIURNAL
CU DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK GENERALLY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE...BUT STILL QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SFC RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FOR THU THROUGH SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIRLY WARM THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE THU NIGHT INTO FRI FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THE
ECMWF COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS A BIT WARMER WITH MORE NW
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OVER THE
PAST FEW MONTHS...HARD TO SAY ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE DRY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT DID KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED CUMULUS WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...MORE SO ON THE MN SIDE. RADAR INDICATED LIGHT SHOWER
MOVING EAST SOUTH EAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND.
ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WERE
MOVING TO THE EAST. ADDED SHOWERS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF
SITES AND PUSHED THUNDER TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES





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