Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Chilly start to the day. The clear skies and light winds were felt
most in the northern Red River Valley into portions of northwest
Minnesota, where some locations got down into the upper teens.
Clouds will move across the area today, with winds gradually
turning west to northwest and increasing. So no real warming is
expected. Previous shift added some low chances for light rain.
Radar is showing some echoes moving through, but not finding any
stations actually reporting any pcpn at the sfc. It looks like it
would be a brief window for this possibility, so will leave that
alone for now. At most it may just be a few sprinkles.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Small area of high pressure near Grand Forks at 08z. Calm wind and
clear sky over the NE ND into far NW MN has allowed temps to drop
into the lower 20s. Patchy fog around Devils Lake airport, but
webcams show good vsby otherwise in that area. Also have had
patchy fog around GFK but that has since moved out. Will need to
watch for other areas of fog forming near dawn but so far coverage
is quite small. Of concern would be the rain areas of west central
into north central MN where skies are clearing late and temps
falling but ground is still wet. But drier air is advecting in so
this may help fog from becoming an issue.

Otherwise today will see a fast moving short wave drop southeast
from Saskatchewan into NE ND and into MN by aftn. Area of mid
clouds with this and also obs and radar near Regina SK indicate
some light -ra. Coordination with other office led to a small pop
for this morning over parts of NE ND and into late morning/early
aftn over NW/NC MN. Temps will rebound some today, but be held a
bit below normal with highs upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Confidence continues for a dry and warm work week ahead. Upper level
northwesterly flow aloft through the first half of the week will
allow for a short wave trough to pass through the region Monday.
This will likely have weak associated surface features, so the
passage of a dry, weak cold front/trough is possible. GFS guidance
suggests dry air present behind this front on Tuesday with relative
humidity values near twenty percent with west/southwesterly winds at
10 to 15 mph across the western most counties in North Dakota. Other
model guidance is not as dry or as warm as the GFS. However, given
the recent freeze conditions across that region and the above normal
temperatures expected attention may need to be given to fire weather
conditions on Tuesday.

A stronger upper level trough is expected to develop on the leeward
side of the Canadian Rockies Wednesday, but will likely only result
in the passage of another weak and dry cold front for the forecast
area on Wednesday. Upper level ridging is expected towards the
second half of the week along with the northward progression of a
warm, moist surface air mass. This may set moisture in place for
rain chances on Saturday as another cold front moves through the
region. Generally dry weather is expected for Sunday, but this may
change depending on the speed and progression of upper level and
surface features towards the end of the week.

High temperatures for Monday through Wednesday are expected to reach
the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows dropping to the upper 30s
and low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 40s are expected for the
second half of the week. Thursday through Saturday will likely be
warmer with afternoon highs reaching the low 70s through the Red
River Valley. Saturday and Sunday should be slightly cooler with
temperatures in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR thru the pd. High and mid level moisture spreading across the
area today...clear tonight. Southwest wind turning west this
afternoon with gusts 25-30kts possible DVL region.




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