Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260423
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY RESULTING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WHERE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER.
MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL APPROACH OR BE COLDER
THAN FREEZING. ON SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS (SOUTH WIND) AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A 35-40 KNOT 850MB JET TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD BY THE TIME THIS FEATURE ARRIVES EAST OF THE VALLEY FOR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH ISOLD OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (WITH VERY LIGHT QPF).

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...OVERALL THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE QUIET.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
LATE THURS/THURS NIGHT...WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR KEEPING
THURS/FRI NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL EXPECTING A LITTLE INCREASE IN CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY SOME MID
CLOUD ON SUNDAY. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS IF
IT DOES FORM IT MAY ONLY GRAZE KTVF/KBJI. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IT
MAY END UP AS VIRGA. MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING S-SE WINDS
DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON






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