Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 112106
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MAIN ISSUE ARE TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS. STRATOCU DECK...WITH PLENTY
OF THIN SPOTS... OVER NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE A TAD THICKER
CLOUDS IN THE SRN AREAS. SHORT WAVE CAUSING THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AS THE SHORT
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COLDER AIR WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH DURING FRIDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE COLD AIRMASS. WITH
THAT COLD AIR MASS WILL COME CLEARING WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR NRN
FCST AREA 03Z AND THEN CNTRL RRV 06Z OR SO. ENOUGH WIND IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS FOR WIND CHILLS TO REACH -25
TO -30F IN NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MIDDAY. COORD WITH
WFO DLH/BIS AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NE ND/NW MN WILL BE
ISSUED VALID 06Z-18Z FRI. MADE IT ONE START TIME TO KEEP IT
SIMPLE...AS EXACT TIMING DEPENDS ON EXACT TEMP CURVE AND WIND.

TEMP RECOVERY FRIDAY WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH SNOW COVER IN MANY
AREAS NOT THICK AND WITH SUN SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER EARLY FRI EVENING WILL BRING A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPS...AND THE HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN FCST
AREA ALL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRI NIGHT. THUS COLDEST LOW TEMPS
IN THE -20S EAST OF THE RED RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND MOVE
INTO SRN SASK/WRN ND SATURDAY DAYTIME. STRONG 850 MB WARM ADECTION
AND 850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO ERN ND AND THE RRV SAT LATE DAY/EVENING AND INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN SAT NIGHT EXITING SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING MOSTLY IN
THE 850 MB LAYER FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
ADVECTION. WPC INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCHES IN MOST
AREAS AND THAT IS REASONABLE. HIGHEST QPF AND A BIT BETTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS MORE SO IN ERN SD WHERE HIGHEST BET OF 4 INCHES
WILL OCCUR. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS SAT NIGHT MOST AREAS AND IN THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD (SUN NIGHT THRU THURSDAY) MAY SEE A COUPLE
OF ROUNDS OF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST SUN
NIGHT AS SATURDAY`S SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT
THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE DIFFERING
IN AN EARLY WEEK SHOT OF PRECIP...WITH GFS BRINGING PRECIP TO
REGION MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SFC HIGH DROPPING OVER THE REGION
TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN WAY OF QPF
MON NIGHT AND THE SFC HIGH TUE NIGHT IS MUCH FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WITH A 140 KT JET MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL A CHANCE OF SNOW TO CNTRL ND AND WESTERN ZONES IN OUR
CWA. AS USUAL WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...LOW CONFIDENCE LOW
THIS FAR OUT FOR TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT AT
LEAST EASTERN ND SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE
NIGHT TIMEFRAME .


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE VALLEY AND NW/W CNTRL MN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. DVL WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 00Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS TO AS LOW AS 4 SM. CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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