Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 929 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Little change needed to the forecast today and tonight. Sky cover
the main challenge with respect to how to message as it will be
overcast although plenty of solar will filter through the thin
layer of ice particles. Warmer today with west winds aiding
temperatures, rising into the 20s along and west of the valley
with teens to the east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The main challenges for the short term will be afternoon highs and
chances for some light snow east of the valley late tonight.

Surface winds will turn more westerly today...and become breezy
west of the valley...allowing surface temps to rebound back into
the upper 20s west of the valley despite increasing clouds. H850
temps should increase about 10 deg over eastern ND while
remaining significantly cooler over the far east...with surface
temps peaking in the mid to upper 20s around Devils Lake and
staying in the mid teens around Bemidji.

A northerly flow upper level pattern will bring a series of upper
waves across the region...with the first clipping Lake of the
Woods early this morning while a second...currently over srn
Nunavut...sinks into northern Minnesota during the overnight
period. Models indicating an area of H300-H500 Q-vector
convergence moving across eastern zones in the 06Z to 12Z
period...where we have been carrying low POPs. With the forcing
generally across the east, did remove POPs across eastern ND and
limit southeastern zones to flurries as there will not be a whole
lot of moisture with this wave...but temps should be cold enough
to see some light snow develop in the east. Less than an inch of
accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will range from around 10
in the far northeast (Baudette) to around 20 in the far
southwest (Lisbon).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Friday through Tuesday...North to northwesterly flow aloft is
expected to continue throughout the period with several fast moving
shortwaves moving through. Models are in decent agreement on one
significant shortwave moving through Friday with some decent precip
chances for the eastern CWA and winds picking up across the west.
Will continue to keep POPs mainly along and east of the Red River
with blowing snow in the west. Amounts still look to be one to two
inches in our northeastern counties. Some of the model soundings
have some drying aloft in the Red River Valley so will have to watch
for FZDZ, but it is on the far west edge of the precip band and
think chances are low enough not to include for the time being.

Saturday should be fairly quiet but another quick clipper starts to
move in Sunday night/Monday morning, Yet another weak jet max moves
through Monday night/Tuesday morning, with more light precip
possible Wednesday. With the northwest flow aloft and fast movement
of the systems, not expecting high QPF amounts at this point but
several rounds of a dusting to a few inches will be possible
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

IFR deck around DVL will impact northeast ND sites this morning
but areal extent difficult to discern sense high cloud is masking
the IFR cigs on latest 3.9 micron imagery. At this time KRDR still
clear blo 12K and will keep VFR cigs through 15Z, when lower
clouds to west advect in but may rise to around 1,500 ft. Will
need to send AMD for DVL. Also light snow report at DVL is suspect
as winds are increasing and may be some low drifting snow
impacting sensor (web cams not supporting snow in area). IFR
expected to drift east of aerodrome by 15Z.




SHORT TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.