Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 012353
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

500 MB SHORT WAVE NOTED IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT
QUESTION IS PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING MAINLY FOR
NE ND INTO NW MN. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THREAT FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NR 06Z IN THE MID
RRV AND THE MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY
12Z. 12Z MODELS TODAY SHOW TO SOME DEGREE THE SAME THING...BUT
MORE GFS IN THIS CASE AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR
AND RAP DONT SHOW (AT LEAST WITH MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTN RUNS).
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-850 MB MOISTURE RETURN THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. SEEING 70 DEW PTS ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER INTO THE
ALEXANDRIA AREA WHILE MOST OF OUR FCST AREA HAS DEW PTS IN THE
50S. SO WILL SEE A MOISTURE SURGE TONIGHT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
IN THE 850 MB LAYER 06Z-12Z PERIOD WHEN A FEW HUNDRED 850 MB CAPE
AVAILABLE. PROBLEM IS LOW LEVEL JET IS VERY WEAK 20 KTS MAYBE. BUT
WILL SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY AND KEEP LOW POPS IN BUT HAVE THEM
06Z-12Z....EXTENDING THEM A FEW HOURS PAST 12Z IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE HUMID AND WARM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH MID 80S EAST TO LOW 90S WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW THREAT FOR PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN ERN
ND...THEN KEEP CHC POPS ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAIN HOW EVENT WILL PLAY
OUT BUT WILL HAVE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND SFC LOWS MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE OVER OR NEAR OUR AREA. EACH
ONE GIVING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
LATE FRIDAY. DAY TO DAY TIMING OF COURSE IS DIFFICULT AT THIS
STAGE.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EVOLUTION WITH A CLOSED STRONG SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LEAD WAVE
AND THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY A LEAD WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE THE LIGHTER WRAP AROUND PCPN ON
SUNDAY AFTN AND EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON SATURDAY WITH LOW
80S IN THE SE HALF OF THE FA AND 70S IN THE NW...HIGHLY INFLUENCED
BY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. A COOLER...CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMP REGIME IS
EXPECTED WITH 70S SUNDAY TO TUE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS FOG AND T POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TONIGHT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MIXING AND POTENTIAL MID CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY
LIMIT ANY FOG AS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT. ALSO BAND
OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION MAY AID IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER PLENTY OF CIN TO OVERCOME SO FOR
NOW HAVE LEFT BR AND T MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



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