Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010432
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR EAST OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLES PERSIST OVER THE FAR SW HOWEVER SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXTENDED TIMING
HOWEVER SHOULD BE DONE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE UPSTREAM OF THE SW CORNER OF THE FA. AS
THESE HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER EXTENDED LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE -SHRA WILL MEASURE TO
MORE THAN A HUNDRETH OR SO. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WV LOOP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...AND
AS EXPECTED...THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR. THINK THAT ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL
BE DONE BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PICK
UP...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE REGION.

TOMORROW...UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
BREEZY AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE RISING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW
60S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS SHOULD SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN RISING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...ALTHOUGH
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE GET. THE GFS AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS ALL BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS US DRY EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. LEANED TOWARDS
THE CONSENSUS OF SOME PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MOSTLY
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING IN
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVEN THE FASTER MODELS HAVE
THE BEST CAPE STAYING WEST OF THE CWA...SO THINK THAT ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
THE PATTERN BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES COMING
OUT. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO EASTERN MT TUESDAY AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE WESTERN CWA SHOWING OVER 2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 35-40 KTS...NOT HUGE BUT PROBABLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE MENTION MOSTLY
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. A NOCTURNAL MCS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS AGREEMENT ON VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S AND
HUMID AT LEAST THE WAY TIMING LOOKS RIGHT NOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A
MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A WHILE. TODAY MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A LITTLE MORE RIDGING AS A STRONGER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH 12Z SAT
GUIDANCE BROADBRUSHES PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT...WHILE LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS THERE MAY BE MORE DRY PERIODS IN THERE. HOWEVER WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS PICK UP ON THIS
BETTER. FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW BRINGING BETTER PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER


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