Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 170859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORT SEEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WTIH THIS FEATURE WANED A BIT SINCE MIDNIGHT AS CLOUD
TOPS WARMED WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION FIRING A BIT SOUTH BUT RADAR
HAS SHOWN SOME NEW CONVECTION LAST 30 MIN IN FORMAN ND AREA.
OVERALL EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH MAIN POPS HOLDING IN REGION FROM BEMIDJI-ADA-FARGO-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD. DID HOWEVER SPREAD SOME LOWER POPS NORTH AS A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON RADAR DRIFTING EAST BTWN GFK-DVL
UP TOWARD WEST OF LANGDON. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT DOING TOO WELL
WITH PRECIP CURRENTLY THRU TODAY. MOST DRIFT MAIN RAIN A BIT TOO
FAR NORTH TODAY I BELIEVE. PWATS ARE HIGHEST EARLY ON TODAY BUT DO
SLOWLY DECREASE A LITTLE AS DAY PROGRESSES AND SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUIET OVER WRN FCST BALANCE OF
TODAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING WRN ND THIS AFTN AND TSTMS
WILL FORM AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEST OF FCST AREA WITH
MU CAPES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST
AND INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z MON AND THEN EAST THRU NW MINNESOTA
MONDAY. KEPT IDEA OF LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO ERN ND MOSTLY MID
EVENIGN SPREADING INTO MN FCST AREA MONDAY. HPC QPF VALUES HAVE
DROPPED WITH HPC FCSTS OF A GENERAL HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH.

FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS TODAY NOT EXPECTING
A HUGE RISE WITH MOSTLY 70S THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN AROUND 80 PSBL IN
THE WEST. 70S AGAIN MONDAY WITH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS HOLDING...FOG
LOOKS A BIT LESS CERTAIN AND THUS SCALED BACK A BIT. NARROW
CLEARING ZONE MORE IN ERN WFO BIS FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

500 MB TROUGH WILL EXIT ERN MN MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER THREAT
ENDING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. TEMPS HOLDING NR
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION TO A WESTERN US TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS PATTERN. EITHER WAY...INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TREND MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS STILL
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND
THUS WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF AVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

LEFT FOG IN AT MOST TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE. NOT SURE IF THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LOW CLOUD DECK OR NOT...BUT IT MAY. IF IT DOES
RESULT IN A LOW CLOUD DECK IT MAY HOLD IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL. IF NOT THE MORNING SUN SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LATE MORNING CUMULUS. BROUGHT IN A VICINITY TSTM MENTION IN THE
EVENING FOR TAF SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






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