Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH AND
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL INTENSIFY AND NARROW BY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUAD.

RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM RED LAKE AND PENNINGTON COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ND ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

RAISED TEMPS NORTH AND LOWERED TEMPS SOUTH WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WERE
MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A
SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MN AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. ANOTHER
LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST ND AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. TWEAKED SKY AND WIND CONDITION FOR
TONIGHT. POPS GENERALLY INCREASED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR A CANDO-HARVEY-
MEDINA ND LINE. BAND OF ECHOES ON RADAR ALONG THE MANITOBA BORDER
LANGDON AREA. ECHOES HAVE GROWN A BIT BUT SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS
SITES. BUT FORSEE SOME SPRINKLES AT LEAST HITTING THE GROUND AS
STARTING TO SEE MORE 25 DBZ ECHOES. FRONT MOVES INTO THE RRV 23Z-
01Z TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE DONE OK IN PICKING UP THIS NRN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIP AND HAVE IT IN THE FAR NRN RRV/FAR NW MN IN THIS
PERIOD. SEEING SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN SASK MOVING
INTO FAR NW ND. AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY YET MOVE BACK A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVE INTO NE ND/NW MN.
OVERALL LEFT POP TRENDS AS IS WITH HIGH CHC NORTHEAST AND LOW CHC
DVL-GFK-PKD WITH DRY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP BY SOME CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE LOW AND UPPER LOW COMBINE A BIT MORE AND SLOW
DOWN IN NW ONTARIO WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION. REST OF THE AREA TO SEE SOME CLOUD/SUN MIX WITH
HIGHS A TAD COOLER. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C SUN LATE IN NRN AREAS
SO DECENTLY COOL AIR MASS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE GENERAL CLEARING SKY AND COOL...WITH 35-40
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF OVER THE AREA. COULD
BE SOME DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ON
TUESDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SET UP A NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE N CNTRL
CONUS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK SHOULD SEE DRY CONDS WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WED NIGHT ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
A WAVE MOVING ACROSS SASK/MB REGION AND PRODUCING SHOWERS ON THU
INTO THU NIGHT. GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP THAN ECMWF AND
WITH THE CONSALL BEING MOSTLY DRY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS
UNTIL THU NIGHT. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY QUITE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO BUT FAIRLY DRY OVER THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE
THEN KICKS OUT OF EASTERN MT AND INTO THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
PLAINS...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INTO NEBRASKA. REGARDLESS A CHANCE
OF SHRA MAKES SENSE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS THEN BECOMES VERY BULLISH WITH
PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES...BUT WITH ECMWF NOT IN
LINE WITH THIS STRONG OF A SYSTEM...WILL LIMIT THE LIKELY POPS
YIELDED BY THE CONSALL SOLUTION TO HIGH CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SCT TO BKN CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MORE SO BKN ON THE
MN SIDE AND SCT ON THE ND SIDE. CIGS WERE GENERALLY 6 THOUSAND FT
AND HIGHER. MORE BKN CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY AND SCT OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




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