Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM TO HOT TEMPS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN EASTERN ND AND INTO THE
RRV. SO FAR THE HOTTEST TEMP IS 95 DEGREES IN LANGDON...WITH LEEDS
CLOSE BEHIND AT 94. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE AT 65-70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE EAST
TOMORROW THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING LIKE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED.

TUESDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...AND TEMPS IN THE 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE WEST WITH
MODEST MUCAPE. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTH RRV.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN A GREAT
ODDS WITH TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 500 MB TROUGH.  THIS
PLAYS HAVOC WITH POPS ESP IN THE FRI-SAT PERIOD WHERE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER AND MAINLY DRY AND WARMER VS THE MUCH WETTER GFS MODEL.  THIS
HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST TWO MODEL RUNS.  WITHOUT ANY
CONFIDENCE ON EITHER SOLN AT THIS POINT KEPT IDEA OF SOME POPS FRI-
SUN IN THERE BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS BELOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR WED NIGHT-THU
MAINLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND VERY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 ONCE MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT IN GENERAL SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.  LOW LEVEL JET 40-50 KTS TONIGHT UP IN
THE 3-5K AGL RANGE...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FARGO IS MOST PRONE TO SEE THIS.
MID CLOUDS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY
12Z MON FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.