Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 251552
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1052 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
VSBYS ARE ON THE RISE. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS...BUT THERE
IS SOME SUN UPSTREAM. IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT THE ROADS WILL MELT
OFF QUICKLY. OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS ARE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA A
LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO OUR MN FA...SO WILL ADD ANOTHER TIER
OF MN COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SNOW AND WIND WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR TODAY. UPPER CIRCULATION
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW (09Z) ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BAND OF DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIP WITHIN THE VALLEY WILL ALSO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THIS
BAND OF PRECIP IF FAIRLY UNORGANIZED...AND DOES BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN. EVEN IF THIS PRECIP BAND CAN ORGANIZE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO...GIVEN THE FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPS AND CONSTANT EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THE PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW IS LOW (MOST AREAS LIKELY A DUSTING A SNOW).

GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG WINDS TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KNOT 925MB
WIND SPEEDS. MIXING POTENTIAL IS FAIR...ALTHOUGH LACK OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT MIXING A BIT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING...NO NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF DZ/FZDZ ACROSS A PORTION OF WC MN.
HOWEVER...ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING (EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING). THIS AREA WILL SOON BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC TROUGH...ENDING THE DRIZZLE. VERY LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WX ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
SIGNAL FOR A QUICK CLIPPER AND -SN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WHILE THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WEAKENS IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE STATES. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF PRECIP WAS TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE THE
GFS WAS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SAT, SUN AND
MON AND INCREASE ONE TO THREE DEGREES ON TUE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOUR WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.