Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160907
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. VORTICITY LOBES WERE ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM. UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. SYSTEM
CONTINUES EAST INTO ONTARIO MON NIGHT AND OPENS UP.

700 HPA THETA-E GRAD MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING.  MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE UP TO AROUND 1100 J/KG IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE ARE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SOULD
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

COLDER AIR MOVES ON WEST AND SO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. THE NW FLOW LOFT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE DAILY FROM HIGHS ON TUESDAY OF LOW TO
MID 50S TO NEAR 70 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH KFAR SHOWING CIGS
OF AROUND 4000 FT BUT EVERYONE ELSE WITH CIRRUS ONLY. THE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT CIGS SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ABOVE 5000 FT. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING TREND WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF VCTS A
BIT LONGER INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JR



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