Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SURPRISE... WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF MARKEDLY WITH SUNSET. STILL
A FAIR NORTHEAST FLOW GRADIENT, BUT ENOUGH DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW WINDS IN SOME AREAS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
LONG. ELSE...NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THERE IS STILL NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE FOCUSING ON MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN
GOT FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT ABOUT WHERE
THEY DID YESTERDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BIG CHANGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE OTHER MODELS SHOW NO
PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE OR HAVE IT FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DROP SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THEN DOWN INTO
CENTRAL SD. AFTER COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE ON THE ECMWF ALSO HOLDS BACK COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE FA FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE WARMER.
HAVE KEPT THE WARMER SCENARIO FOR NOW. WINDS ON MONDAY TAKE ON
MORE OF A WEST-NW DIRECTION...BUT NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR TUE...A STRONGER NORTHEAST TO SW THERMAL GRADIENT SETS
UP...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE NNW AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEMS.
FLOW IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY COLD
850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS AND LOWERED THE BLENDED
SOLUTION A BIT TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WARMING TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER GFS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SO LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE NEAR NIGHTFALL...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...GUST/MAKOWSKI



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