Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241539
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Minimal changes this update. Ridge of surface high pressure to
hold over the FA today. Thermal advection fairly neutral with
patchy cloud cover across the region. Will hold with current
temperature forecast for now.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Tweaked clouds a bit as some mid level stratus has started to move
into the northern Red River Valley. Temperatures in the
northeastern counties have fallen a bit more than expected, so
lowered readings for a bit there, but should still recover to near
20 by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast concern for the period.

Water vapor loop continues to show split flow aloft with the main
upper low to our south over Neb moving into IA today.
Precipitation from this system will continue to remain well to
our south and east. A weak northern branch shortwave will also be
moving through, bringing a bit of clouds and maybe a flurry this
morning. Even with cirrus coming up from the south and mid level
clouds this morning from the northern branch shortwave, there
should be some sunshine during the day today. However, we will be
deeper into the colder air with north winds somewhat breezy over
the southern counties. Have highs today between 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than yesterday, topping out mostly in the 20s.

Tonight, conditions should remain fairly quiet under northwesterly
flow aloft and weak high pressure moving east. Mid level moisture
will begin to come in from the west and should bring some clouds,
but some parts of the CWA, most likely the northeast, should
remain mostly clear. Have temps ranging from single digits to mid
teens in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Saturday and Sunday...A weak shortwave moving through the
northwesterly flow aloft will bring a chance for some light precip
Saturday afternoon and night. There is still some variation
between the model runs, but at this point it seems that the weak
surface trough will move along the ND/SD border, with best precip
chances moving across the western counties Saturday afternoon and
into the southern counties for Saturday night. Amounts will be
very very light, with a half an inch or less expected. Northwest
to westerly flow will continue into Sunday and Sunday night, and
there are signs of another even weaker shortwave moving through.
Any precip from these will be even lighter and amount to no more
than flurries. Temps over the weekend will be near seasonal
values, with highs ranging from near 20 north to low 30s south and
lows in the single digits to teens.

Monday through Friday...Models show a general broad trof across the
northern plains and into the Great Lakes to start the period. An
impulse propagating across the region will bring chances for light
precipitation.

By Tuesday...the upper pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
with a wave ejecting out of the Rockies. Model vary greatly as to
placement of surface features so confidence is low as to where the
greatest chances for precipitation are. Therefore...will continue to
follow guidance and go with a blended soln with respect to POPs for
now. Behind the system...expect a slight cooling trend to impact the
area by Thursday.  Another wave is forecast to approach the area by
the end the period bringing another chance for light pcpn...and
temperatures continuing near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Cirrus has been moving up from the south, with some 3500-6000 ft
clouds moving in from the north overnight. All sites are VFR and
should remain so throughout the morning, although will have to
watch KDVL as a few spots in southwestern Manitoba have been
dropping down to MVFR. Will keep KDVL VFR until late in the
period tomorrow morning, with the rest of the TAF sites remaining
VFR throughout. The winds from the north will pick up a bit this
afternoon and gust above 20 kts in spots, but then decrease and
shift to the west southwest Friday night.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hopkins
AVIATION...JR



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