Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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546
FXUS63 KFGF 231000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

700mb low near Fargo will propagate northeast through the morning
hours. Radar/Satellite imagery indicating a deformation zone
snowband has set up in this area with enhanced snowfall rates.
Mesoscale forcing parameters are all weak and do not anticipate
organized banding. As such, the winter weather advisory looks on
track with most areas receiving 3-5 inches. Main impact looks to
be snow covered roads. High pressure builds into the region this
afternoon along with clearing sky. Main challenge for tonight will
be min temps, but wind chills will warmer than wind chill advisory
criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level trough over southern CA will move
out into the Central Plains on Sat. System will move into western
Great Lake states by Sun morning. System becomes negatively tilted
with better than 200 meter height falls. Surface low expected to
deepen rapidly Sat night but system will remain quite far south
and east of the area. However expect winds to increase mainly over
the eastern zones for Sat night into Sun. Also snow will fall
over the southeast two thirds of the area Sat afternoon and Sat
night. The most snow is forecast again over the far southeast
zones.

Next system is currently located over the gulf of AK. System will
move across the area Mon. System may produce very light snow in the
far northern zones Sun night.

Monday-Thursday...Longwave trough remains over the western US.
Longwave ridge over the southeast US retrogrades a bit through the
period. Long wave trough over northern Canada shifts to the other
hemisphere. Upper air pattern relaxes a bit through the period.

Split flow develops over North America as another trough re-
establishes over the Desert Southwest and waves keep moving across
the Northern Plains. Relatively zonal flow much of the period and
trending toward southwest flow aloft at the end of the period.
Another trough moves through the area Tue with little snow expected.

High temperatures were increased zero to three degrees for Mon, Tue
and Wed. Little change to Thu from yesterdays run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Ceilings down to MVFR with vis around a mile at KFAR and KBJI. The
snow will push into KGFK and KTVF shortly. There could be some
variation in visibility from 1SM to the 2-5SM range for much of
the night before snow tapers off around the 12-14Z time frame.
KDVL will remain VFR throughout the period. Ceilings will improve
to VFR by the afternoon hours, then clear out completely late in
the period. Winds will remain below 12 kts, with light and
variable winds overnight shifting to the northwest, west, then
southwest by tomorrow evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     NDZ053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ002-
     003-015>017-022>024-027-028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR



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