295
FXUS63 KFGF 021530
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances continue with multiple rounds of rain through
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Widespread rain is expected to continue through this evening.
Various reports have about 0.3 to 0.5 inches of rain over the
Devils Lake Basin and general between 0.1 and 0.2 inches for the
Red River Valley. Overall forecast seems to remain on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain has begun to widely overspread eastern North Dakota this
morning and parts of northwest Minnesota. Totals thus far in the
Devils Lake area are already over 0.10" per NDAWN gauges so QPF
seems well on track. No large changes in the forecast just
continuing to use Hi-res guidance to follow and match the
current rain as best as possible. Overall thoughts remain the
same regarding afternoon convective potential with it remaining
a low threat for some small hail and the occasional funnel
pending afternoon heating if clouds part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The deep troughing over the western CONUS will continue to slide
northeast into south central Canada this weekend as eastern ridging
slowly fades and flow becomes more zonal this weekend. Stronger
waves will continue to rotate around the parent trough to the north
with a brief break in the rain for the weekend as ridging moves in.
The first round of rain is just starting to move in from the
southwest as a surface low in the central plains interacts with the
upper low to the north northwest bringing broad warm air advection
into the northern plains with a developing surface low eventually
arriving tomorrow afternoon from MT/WY. Expecting the heaviest
accumluations to fall across eastern ND and far northwest MN.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the 25/75 showing 0.50-
1.00" for the area and 0.25-0.50" for the rest of the area.

Steepening lapse rates under the approaching low may result in some
cape up to 500 J/kg allowing for embedded convection tomorrow
locally enhancing totals across parts of eastern ND. With this
convective potential also wouldn`t rule out a few funnels as a sfc
boundary sweeps through an airmass with good low level stretching
potential aligned with strong surface vorticity gradients but the
threat for tornados is low due to cloud cover limiting the potential
for diurnal heating and resulting SBCAPE not exceeding a few 100
j/kg. Main area of concern for any of this activity would be in
southeast ND and the southern Red River Valley but the threat
remains conditional upon afternoon heating occuring.

Ridging will follow the late week rain as cold air advection ahead
of the ridge begins to shut off the rain machine by Friday morning
behind the cold front. A seasonally nice weekend, which feels
deserved after this long stretch of dreary weather, with highs in the
60s and 70s by Sunday.

Widespread rain chances return as southwest flow brings another slow
moving upper low from the four corners region early next week.
Between clusters there is agreement on at least an 80% chance for >
0.25" of rain in a 24 hour period sometime on Monday/Tuesday though
timing and location of this rainfall varies and thus lots of
uncertainty. Upper flow looks to remain weak through the end of next
week potentially giving more prolonged rain chances and near average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain has begun to move an should quickly drop any remaining VFR
ceilings to MVFR this morning and subsequently IFR by noon.
Uncertain as to the extent of LIFR development but ceiling as
low as 005 to 008 this afternoon are possible. should see
improvements as rain exits this evening with a return to
widespread MVFR overnight. Winds briefly become gusty this
afternoon to 20 kts from the southeast and turn west overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch