Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260414
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1114 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The RAP has a decent handle on development of rain showers over
central and eastern SD that will lift north into the RRV region
tonight. We are beginning to see reports of precipitation across
west central MN. Several high res models shift main precip east of
valley fairly early in the post-midnight period, however radar
trends seem to support the RAP best, which would lift some decent
showers into southeast and east central ND as well. Have trended
POPs toward this solution and raised POPs over eastern ND. Sfc low
will lift out of central plains and into the GT LKS region by noon
Tuesday, with precip spreading northward into the northern tier
overnight tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Weak echoes now spreading northward into the southern Red River
Valley and west central Minnesota appear to be mid clouds as it is
difficult to find any ground truth for rain via METARs. Latest hi
res guidance is indicating rain. Think things should saturate
enough by 03Z for some rain to start and generally went with a
HRRR and continuity blend, maybe increasing the higher POPs by
about an hour or two. Overall fairly insignificant changes and no
changes made to ongoing temp curve. Adjusted sky trends in the NW
for some breaks earlier this evening, but expect that to fill in
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Upper low to propagate east from the northern high plains across
the forecast area overnight and Tuesday. As it does an associated
surface low will lift ne along the boundary to our east from IA
to the western great lakes. Question will be how far west wrap
around -ra gets into our forecast area. CAM guidance in
reasonable good agreement in bringing -ra back into the east and
south between 03-06z time frame then slowly spreading north and
west. Model guidance indicating best potential across the
remainder of the forecast area from 12-18z Tuesday with upper low
passage. With the track of the upper low over the fa and surface
high ridging into the dakotas rain coverage somewhat in question
so will go with chance pops at this point. Will keep higher pops
across the east closer to surface inverted trough. Clouds will
keep temperatures close to what we have seen the past couple of
days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Rain should gradually diminish Tuesday night as upper low
continues to propagate northeast. Clearing will have an impact on
how low temperatures get however overall minimum temperatures
should be a few degrees either side of 40.

Improving conditions Wednesday with high pressure building into
the northern plains. Low level westerly flow and potential for
solar should allow temperatures to recover into the 60s and could
reach 70 over the west. At this point with warmer column and light
westerly flow not anticipating any frost potential.

Guidance has come into better agreement with the upper level system
moving into the Great Lakes region along with the cold front moving
through from the north Thursday. However, a drier scenario is now
being forecasted by guidance. Still leaving some chance for rain
mainly in Minnesota counties. The Manitoba/Ontario surface high will
drop into the area behind Thursday`s cold front with its dry
influence lasting through Friday into the weekend. There remains
some chance of patchy frost Friday morning in northern Minnesota,
although confidence still remains low with this potential. As the
surface high moves to the southeast, southerly return flow will
allow for milder temperatures this weekend with highs in the 60s,
possibly 70s for counties closer to the tri-state area. As the
surface high strengthens to the southeast, gusty southerly winds
will be felt mainly during afternoons over the weekend. Guidance
indicates a cold front approaching from the west around the Sunday
into early Monday timeframe. This will increase rain chances. It is
too far out into the period to confidently say if there will be
thunderstorms with this front. Overnight lows throughout the period
will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Expect lowering CIGs from south to north as precipitation over SD
lifts into the valley and surrounding regions. MVFR cigs will
lower to IFR by morning with exception of DVL, which may remain
MVFR throughout the day Tuesday. DVL should improve to VFR cigs by
end of 06Z TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...CJ/JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher



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