Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251903 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Expect some isolated light snow in parts of northwest MN early this
afternoon. Clouds are beginning to scatter and clear from west to
east. Expect gusts to 30 mph to create drifting and some patchy
blowing snow this afternoon. No significant travel concerns expected
at this time, but temperatures peaking near freezing at some
locations could cause some refreezing to patchy ice on roads.

UPDATE Issued at 1013 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Increased snow chances for near/north of Devils Lake basin and
through northwest MN this morning, continuing in northwest MN
early this afternoon as broader upper forcing from the nearby
upper low causes scattered light snow. Increased gusts a bit
from the Devils Lake basin to the southern valley and into west
central MN for late morning through the afternoon as near-850mb
winds of 25-35 mph have the potential to mix down. As a result, expect
drifting snow and some patchy blowing snow in these areas.

UPDATE Issued at 713 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Allowed the winter weather advisory to expire. Next concern will
be later this morning as westerly winds increase, and how much
snow will be able to blow around. Still thinking mainly a drifting
snow event. As temperatures approach 30F could be some melting and
refreezing that could cause minor travel issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Snow is winding down as visibilities are improving. Did receive a
report of near 6 inches of snow near Blackduck, so the heavier
snowfall within the deformation zone snow band did accumulate into
the advisory range at least. Snow is winding down so will stick
with the advisory. The region remains in cyclonic upper flow
today with clouds remaining for much of the day (although some
clear sky also expected). Westerly flow/warm front will approach
and move through the region today and temperatures should climb
into the 20s or low 30s. The main impact today will be the
westerly winds and drifting snow. 925mb winds will be 25-30 knots,
with decent mixing anticipate surface winds will be 20-25 mph with
gusts to just over 30 mph. Canadian blowing snow model suggests
these speeds not enough to produce significant visibility
reduction, but likely enough for at least drifting snow with some
blowing. As temperatures approach 30 degrees, drifting snow may
cause some travel issues with a melt/freeze scenario. Tonight
should be a relatively mild night with the region in the warm
sector of a Canadian system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Monday-Tuesday...Relatively zonal flow is forecast across the
area this period. Short wavelength upper ridge over ID will move
east of the forecast area Mon morning. Next short wave moving onto
the BC coast will move into the Northern Plains on Mon. System is
only expected to produce clouds across parts of the area.
Precipitation is expected to stay north of the International
border.

Tuesday-Saturday...Longwave pattern relaxes through the period.
Longwave trough over western North America retrogrades a bit off
the west coast and weakens while the north portion over northern
Canada shifts to the other hemisphere by the end of the period.
Longwave ridge is forecast to build off the northeast coast of
Canada. Would expect some moderation in temps. However main jet
remains south of the area.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF through the period.
Next short wave is expected Wed night and again is only expected to
produce clouds. The next system is forecast for about Sat.

Little change to high temperatures Wed through Fri. High temps lower
a degree for Sat from yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Expect scattered MVFR and low VFR cigs through the area this
afternoon as cigs begin to scatter and lift out from west to east.
Cigs should clear out overnight. Could see some isolated light snow
this afternoon as well, but chances are too low to mention at
individual sites. Expect westerly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts to
25-30 kts and the strongest winds in the corridor from the Devils
Lake and James River valleys to southern Red River valley.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...BP



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