National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 160038
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
738 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Tomorrow Night/

A dry line located across portions of Western Texas has been
kicking off thunderstorms for the last couple of hours, but these
storms are struggling to persist quite a bit. While the
environment along the dry line is favorable for severe weather,
this potential quickly drops off as you move east into our region.
This is largely due to a stout capping inversion that is currently
in place thanks to a very warm EML aloft.

Much of this activity should remain off to our west, though a few
elevated thunderstorms could make their way across North and
Central Texas through the overnight hours into early Tuesday
morning. Some of these could be strong to marginally severe with
hail and damaging winds as the main threats. The primary area of
concern will be north of I-20 and west of I-35. As we move into
the early morning hours on Tuesday, a few of these storms could
re-intensify as they move through East Texas. Overall rainfall
amounts won`t amount to much, with the highest likely totals just
under a tenth of an inch.

Warm and breezy conditions will return across the region with
highs on Tuesday afternoon in the low to mid 80s, with a few
locations reaching toward the 90 degree mark. Another mild night
is in store with lows ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

A brief period of dry and warm weather is expected during the
middle of the week as drier air behind the Pacific front spreads
over North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs in the mid-80s to
near 90 degrees are expected across much of the region Wednesday
with temperatures approaching the mid-90s across portions of the
Big Country by Thursday. Winds will quickly shift back to
southerly by late Wednesday drawing quality moisture back over the
FWD CWA ahead of the next storm system. Increasing warm-
advection and a series of subtle shortwave impulses progressing
through the mostly zonal flow aloft may allow for isolated to
scattered showers starting as early as Wednesday night, especially
across Central Texas in the deeper moisture. More widespread chances
for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening as a dryline approaches from the west and a
frontal boundary shifts southward into the Southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will overspread the
warm sector and will likely lead to 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. ~30-35
kts of effective bulk shear will support a few discrete/semi-
discrete supercells or clusters of storms with predominately a
large hail threat. The ultimate position of these surface
boundaries during peak heating Thursday afternoon will determine
where the greatest severe weather threat will lie, but as of now
it looks like locations east of Highway 281 and along/north of
Highway 22 will contain the greatest threat.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will eventually stall by
Friday morning, however there are still some model discrepancies
in the southern extent of this frontal passage. Roughly a third of
the most recent suite of ensemble members stop the frontal
boundary near the Red River, largely driven by the ECMWF ensemble.
Another ~25% of members bring the boundary just south of the I-20
corridor with about 40% of members pushing the front all the way
into portions of Central and Southeast Texas by Friday morning.
Isentropic ascent atop the frontal surface will keep skies cloudy
and allow for periods of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend. A stronger mid-level disturbance
will shift over the Southern Plains during the Saturday-Sunday
timeframe aiding in a renewed southward push of the frontal
boundary toward the Gulf Coast. Widespread elevated convection is
expected during this time. Sufficient MUCAPE may support a few
more robust storms capable of producing hail, however much of the
attention will shift to a heavy rain/flooding threat, especially
late Saturday into Sunday. With ample deep moisture in place, this
slow-moving frontal system may be supportive of west-east
training thunderstorms increasing the threat for renewed flash
flooding and/or river flooding concerns across portions of North
and Central Texas. More specific timing and location details will
be refined over the coming days, so stay tuned to the forecast!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings w/ Low VCTS Potential Overnight.

Ceilings have briefly recovered to low VFR through the early
evening across most of the region before they deteriorate back
down to MVFR overnight through tomorrow afternoon. There is a low
chance (~30%) for occasional IFR ceilings across portions of North
and Central Texas through the early morning, but confidence
remains too low to mention in this TAF issuance.

A dry line well off to the west has fired off several
thunderstorms, but these should weaken considerably as they move
into the region and remain well to the northwest of the D10
terminals. An unfavorable environment should keep much of this
activity away from the TAF sites, but there is a low chance for
elevated convection around the 08-10z timeframe. Any storms will
continue to push off to the east through Tuesday morning with
clearing skies as drier air filters into the region.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  87  68  88  69 /  30  10   5   0   5
Waco                69  85  69  87  69 /  20  20   0   0  10
Paris               66  82  67  85  66 /  30  30  10   5   5
Denton              66  85  63  87  65 /  30  10   5   0   5
McKinney            67  85  66  86  67 /  30  20   5   0   5
Dallas              69  88  68  88  69 /  30  10   5   0   5
Terrell             67  82  68  85  68 /  20  20   5   0  10
Corsicana           70  85  71  87  70 /  20  20   5   0  10
Temple              68  85  68  87  68 /  20  20   0   5  10
Mineral Wells       67  87  60  89  65 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$