872
FXUS64 KFWD 042022
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

Thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon with
impacts expected across North and Central Texas. There will be a
medium risk for flash flooding, especially south of I-20. Severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will also become a
threat this afternoon through tonight.

The weather system responsible for today/tonight`s rain is now
across southern NM, continuing to move eastward. Additionally, a
nearly stationary front stretches from Central Oklahoma
southwestward into the Permian Basin. Several boundaries are also
draped across the region -- one just south of the I-20 corridor
with another across the Red River. As the main shortwave
continues to inch closer to our region, these boundaries are
likely to become the focus for thunderstorm development. MLCAPE
has gradually been on the rise through the day, with just over
2000 J/kg expected by this afternoon. The greatest instability is
likely to be across western Central Texas (west of I-35), where
the atmosphere has remain unperturbed from this morning`s rain.
It`s this area that will have the better chances to experience
severe thunderstorms both this afternoon, then again tonight.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the risk for flash
flooding has increased, especially across western Central Texas.
Models continue to produce widespread heavy rainfall across the
Hill Country, where about half of the area is at risk of picking
up at least 5" of rain. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour cannot be
ruled out, therefore, those across Central Texas should prepare
for potential night-time flooding. The flooding threat will
migrate eastward through the early morning hours as heavy rain
falls over saturated soils. Although rainfall totals are expected
to be slightly lower than western Central Texas, saturated soils
will quickly lead to runoff. Any heavy rain that falls will
quickly lead to flooding across the Brazos Valley.

Another concentrated area of convection appears likely across
North Texas, however, confidence in its exact placement remains
low. Widespread 1-3" of rain are expected with isolated pockets of
4+ inches of rain possible. Wherever those heavier rain bands
develop, the flash flooding threat will rapidly increase.

Precipitation will be shifting eastward through the night,
clearing much of our region by sunrise Sunday. A few lingering
showers cannot be ruled out through the morning as remnant
moisture lingers behind the departing complex. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s.



Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Any lingering or secondary convection on Sunday will dissipate
after sunset with the loss of instability. The return of warm/moist
advection aloft, lingering moisture, and light east to southeast
surface winds will lead to more drizzle and fog formation
overnight. Will indicate some visibility drops of 1 to 4 miles in
drizzle/fog but nothing dense at this time. Visibility will
improve around midday with boundary layer mixing.

An active weather pattern will remain in place, however, due to
the development of a longwave trough across the CONUS, the
resulting cyclonic flow aloft, and the presence of a dryline to
our west. Isolated thunderstorms may occur both Monday and
Tuesday, but a strong capping inversion will keep storm coverage
low and most areas rain-free. Hopefully this cap holds, otherwise
surface based CAPE of 4000-5000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of
effective shear will cause any storm which develops to become
rapidly severe.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as a shortwave
crosses the Plains and the dryline advances east into North and
Central Texas. Convection developing near the dryline should begin
farther east and become more widespread than previous days due to
added lift associated with the shortwave. At this time, position
of the dryline and convective initiation looks to be somewhere
near the I-35 corridor. In addition, a cold front will slowly
approach, which may provide an added focus for development
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and deep layer shear
will again be sufficient for the development of severe storms.

The front will sag south into Central Texas on Thursday, shifting
convection and the severe threat south of the I-20 corridor as a
second shortwave moves overhead. The front will continue to push
slowly south, forcing thunderstorm development farther south
into South Central and Southeast Texas on Friday. The upper trough
will shift to the eastern third of the CONUS Friday into
Saturday, sending a second push of cooler post-frontal air into
the region and making for a dry and pleasant start to next
weekend. Next Sunday may see a return of clouds and low rain
chances in the afternoon and evening, but most locations should
experience pleasant weather for Mother`s Day.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Isolated afternoon storms through around 21Z.
Widespread storms tonight, impacting all TAF sites.

After a morning with light rain and drizzle, much of the
precipitation has now migrated south of the North Texas TAF sites.
Remnant MVFR ceilings continue for now, however, VFR is expected
to evolve closer to 21Z. Southerly winds will persist through
this evening, generally between 10 to 15 knots.

A few storms have already developed west/northwest of Abilene
behind a nearly stationary cold front. This front is positioned
from southwest to northeast, with very little southward progress
expected into our region. Rapid thunderstorm development across
the Permian Basin is expected later this afternoon, with an
eastward movement through the evening hours. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be impacting KACT and all North Texas sites
starting around 04Z and continuing through around 08Z. Heavy
rainfall will cause a reduction in visibility with erratic winds
expected. Winds behind the complex of storms is likely to remain
out of the east/northeast

A few lingering showers are possible through the morning hours as
winds return out of the south by the afternoon. There is a low
chance of an isolated storm or two tomorrow afternoon, however,
confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  78  68  83  72 / 100  60  10  20  20
Waco                66  78  69  82  71 / 100  40  20  20   5
Paris               65  74  66  80  71 /  90  90  20  30  20
Denton              64  78  67  83  71 / 100  60  10  30  20
McKinney            66  77  67  82  71 / 100  80  10  30  20
Dallas              67  79  68  83  72 / 100  60  10  20  10
Terrell             66  77  67  83  71 / 100  70  20  20   5
Corsicana           68  79  68  85  72 / 100  50  20  20   5
Temple              67  79  68  83  72 / 100  40  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       64  78  66  86  71 /  90  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$