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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211937
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday in
  eastern Colorado.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  283.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Shortwave ridge will build across the area this afternoon and
tonight with clearing skies. Southwest surface winds will
increase late this evening with developing pressure gradient
between departing high and deepening trough in Colorado. HREF
shows mean gusts across the area of 35-40 mph between 10 PM and
3 AM MDT, diminishing after that. Low temperatures will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday, upper trough moving through the northern plains will
push a cold front into the area during the afternoon, located
roughly Norton to Goodland to Flagler at 21z. Ahead of the
front, relative humidity will drop to 15% or less, but winds
will be lacking for critical fire weather conditions. HREF
suggests a few isolated showers/thunderstorms possible along the
front, but instability will be limited to just a few hundred
jules of CAPE, mostly behind the front, with increasing CIN by
00z. Other hires models, especially the NAMnest, show a few
isolated showers/storms persisting in the post frontal
environment through Monday evening with modest MUCAPE, but
confidence is low. Any precipitation should end by 06z across
the area. High temperatures will range from the middle 70s in
northern areas with an earlier frontal passage to lower 80s
ahead of the front with a later passage. Lows Monday night will
be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday will be partly sunny and cooler with highs in the 60s to
around 70. Weak wave embedded in zonal flow aloft combined with
surface upslope winds will combine to initiate scattered
showers on the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the
afternoon. These showers will move across the area Tuesday
night. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts from the NBM show less
than 0.05 inches by 12z Wednesday morning. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday, zonal flow persists during the day with shortwave
ridge moving through Wednesday night. Ahead of the ridge may see
a few showers/isolated thunderstorms with weak embedded wave and
southeasterly low level flow into the higher terrain.
Instability will be quite weak, mean CAPE values around 100
j/kg, but just enough to mention the possibility of thunder.
Mean precipitation amounts by Thursday morning are less than a
tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and lows in the 40s. It will also be breezy, with NBM mean wind
gusts approaching 40 mph by late Wednesday morning, but then
diminishing late afternoon and evening. Humidity values remain
well above any fire weather thresholds with the cooler
temperatures and unfavorable southeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Over the past 24 hours, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH have started
agreeing a lot more about timing of the system on Thursday. They now
show a moderately strong upper-level trough moving through the area
Thursday evening/night. At 850 mb, all three show a low pressure
system moving across the area between 21Z Thursday to 12Z Friday,
suggesting another nocturnal event. SPC has kept a 15% severe
weather outlook for our eastern area for this timeframe. There is
good agreement that an 850 mb moist conveyor belt will setup around
Thursday 0-6Z, feeding Gulf moisture into the eastern 1/3 to 2/3 of
the CWA, and continue until the cold front attached to the low moves
through. Confidence is increasing (~45%) for timing of this event;
late Thursday afternoon to Friday morning looks to bulk of the event.

This setup looks fairly similar to the event we had April 11th. A
dryline will form in the central CWA extending southward and move
east as the evening progress, firing storms as it does. East of the
dryline, moisture will be plentiful for storm growth and to the west
of the line, dry, breezy conditions are expected.

There are PoPs ranging from 20-70+ covering nearly all of the CWA
Thursday night. However, much like APR 11 system, majority of the
precipitation will fall in the northern CWA.

There is a risk of brief elevated fire weather for portions of
Cheyenne county in Colorado. RH values look to drop near 20% while
southerly winds gust up to 25-30 kts. The dryline, once again, will
be the deciding factor to what potential hazards any location could
see. RH values have increased with this round of guidance,
significantly lowering the risk of fire weather danger for Thursday.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they will be
northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with this system do
not seem to be as strong as what they were last week, thus current
confidence for High Wind is less than 10%. Gusts seem to max out
around 30-35 kts. The generally southerly winds will allow us to
keep temperatures a bit warmer overall. Thursday is expected to see
mid 70s to mid 80s. Friday through Sunday will be a bit cooler with
highs in the 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the
mid 40s to low 50s with a few places seeing upper 30s Friday night.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night and
Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining precipitation.
This happens just ahead of another low pressure system that guidance
is showing will impact the area around Saturday night. Due to how
far away the event is, climatology, and forecast temperature trend,
we cannot rule out snow showers or severe weather moving over the
area with this second system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low ceilings may persist at KGLD for another hour or so, but by
mid afternoon VFR expected to prevail. At KMCK...VFR expected to
prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024