Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250236
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
836 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief/isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing large
  hail possible between 3-7 pm MDT / 4-8 pm CDT this afternoon,
  mainly east of Highway 25.

- Significant winter storm will affect the region tonight into
  Monday. Blizzard conditions expected over much of northeast
  Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, where
  travel will become difficult or impossible. About as high
  impact as it gets.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

At 02z, RAP40 had a 986mb surface low over southwest Kansas and
a 1017mb surface high over Montana. Moisture and precipitation
was beginning to wraparound the surface low from northeast to
southwest. Spotters have reported graupel in Wheeler and points
east while here at WFO Goodland we are reporting light rain.
Light snow was reported in McCook. The strongest northerly wind
gusts were 39 mph in Idalia and Wray, Colorado.

For the rest of tonight, the surface low (around 990mb) is
forecast to lift northeast into north central Kansas the surface
high remaining strong over Montana. Rain will gradually change
over to snow from northwest to southeast as the colder air moves
in. NAM/GFS/HRRR all suggesting a period of freezing rain
generally east of Highway 25 later tonight through the morning,
transitioning from west to east in between the rain and snow.
Freezing rain amounts up to one tenth of an inch. Low
temperatures are forecast to range from the middle teens across
far eastern Colorado to the middle 20s in Norton and Hill City.
Snowfall amounts of a few tenths to 6 inches are expected with
the higher amounts (3-6") generally along/north of I-70 and west
of a line from McCook to Colby. Visibility forecasts continue to
highlite the potential for blizzard conditions in the Blizzard
Warning area as northerly winds gust 50 to possibly 60 mph.
Outside of the heavier snow (south of I-70), there is a better
likelihood for 60 mph gusts.

Monday...snow and wind continue with the more impactful weather
(blizzard conditions) in the morning. Additional accumulations
through Monday night a few tenths to 4 inches (highest
along/north of I-70 and east of the CO/KS border. Wind gusts to
60 mph remain likely in the Blizzard and High Wind warning
areas. High temperatures will only be in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A deepening lee cyclone in Colorado (~984 mb invof Lamar, CO at
2045 UTC) will track E into south-central KS (this evening) and
ENE-NE into far northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska by mid-
day (18Z) Monday. Strong low-level northerly flow on the
western periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone will `tap` a
Canadian airmass (over Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba)..
advecting it southward through the Dakotas into the Central
Plains late this evening and overnight.

Hazard (Severe Storms): Latest radar, observational, and
mesoanalysis trends suggest a brief window of opportunity for a
marginally severe storm east of Highway 25 this afternoon
(21-02Z).

Hazard (Strong N Winds): Strong northerly winds will develop
this evening as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses east
toward central KS.. and an Arctic airmass /cold front/ surges
southeastward into the area. Expect sustained N winds ranging
from 30-45 mph and gusts in the 55-65 mph range. Latest remote
sensing and observational data indicate little if any potential
for dust/fire related hazards.

Hazard (Snow/Blowing Snow): Heavy precipitation will develop on
the W and NW periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone this
evening-overnight, persisting into Monday. Current and recent
guidance has trended upward with regard to precipitation
amounts.. lending increased confidence that a significant
blizzard will impact the region.. creating difficult or
impossible travel conditions along and north of the I-70
corridor tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

West-northwest flow aloft is present at the start of the long term
period with the upper low center now situated over IA/MO within a
broad trough across much of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
noses in and we`ll continue with well below normal temperatures
Tuesday, before gradually warming up mid-week. Weak embedded waves
may cause a rogue shower or two to develop Tuesday evening-Wednesday
(<15% chance), but if they do, they`d be minimally (if at all)
impactful. At least some cloud cover will return in this timeframe
before the upstream upper level ridge works its way eastward during
the latter half of the work week. This will promote a warming/drying
trend, once again increasing fire weather concerns, particularly for
Thursday-Friday. Towards the end of the period, model guidance
depicts an upper level low digging south along the west coast, which
will likely become the next system to watch, bringing about a return
of active weather next weekend into the following week. Temperatures
during the long term period continue below normal through Wednesday
before warming to above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

KGLD...sub VFR conditions are expected through the taf period
with northerly winds gusting up to 45kts or so, mainly overnight
through the day Monday. Presently, rain and a few thunderstorms
are possible around 03z, changing over to snow around 04z,
continuing through 22z. Snow and blowing snow with significant
visibility reductions are anticipated from 04z-20z.

KMCK...sub VFR conditions are expected through the taf period
with northerly winds gusting up to 40kts or so, mainly late this
evening through the day Monday. Presently, rain and a few
thunderstorms are possible from taf issuance through 05z,
briefing mixing with or changing over to freezing rain through
07z. After 08z, snow, heavy at times with significant visibility
reductions are anticipated through 22z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ001>003-013-
     014.
     High Wind Warning until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ027-
     041-042.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight
     to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ004-015-
     016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Monday
     night for COZ090-091.
     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT
     Monday night for COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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