Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282023
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  across far eastern Colorado this afternoon.

- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti,
  Kansas Sunday afternoon.

- 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with
  a return to below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today-tonight...cirrus clouds are anticipated to move across the
area from the west as short wave ridging moves over the area.
Presently, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to
lower 70s which is represented by the amount of warming at 850mb
compared to yesterday and a blend of the better performing bias
corrected temperature grids. If the cirrus is thicker than currently
anticipated, high temperatures would need to be lowered.
Additionally, the current breezy wind forecast (winds from the
south) could be impacted as thicker cirrus could limit mixing and
thus lower the wind speed forecast. This could be offset by modest 3
hour pressure falls. Tonight, Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower to upper 30s.

Friday-Friday night...a cold front moves through the area, lowering
high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma,
warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly
along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain
showers up to around midnight, mainly across Yuma and Kit Carson
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

As we begin the start of a new work week, be prepared for some wet
conditions across the Tri-State areas as an area of low pressure
moves east across Kansas on Monday. As the surface low moves east,
the wrap around moisture will move over the forecast area bringing
rain chances up to 35% through the afternoon before tapering off
Monday evening. There is still disagreement on the timing of the
system between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS moving the slowest.
This keeps the forecast on the lower side of the confidence
spectrum. So far, the area is expected to see mainly rain with a few
slight chances (low confidence) for thunderstorms in the southeast
corner of the area similar to a few days ago. Monday evening we
could see a transition to a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the
area as temperatures approach freezing. Stay tuned for more details
as CAM guidance begins to cover the system and provide more insight.
Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s
with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

The upper trough axis is expected to be pushed south-southeast
overnight Monday into Tuesday by a area of high pressure off the SW
California coast. The ridge is expected to continue moving east over
the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping the Tri-State
area dry. A lee surface trough may develop along the Front Range on
Thursday possibly creating some elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions over the Colorado Plains. Temperatures will be on
a warming trend next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on
Tuesday, the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, and into the  upper
60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Tuesday
and Wednesday nights. Thursday night we are currently expecting
overnight lows to be in the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period with a mix of scattered to broken high clouds.

Winds for KGLD, south-southwest around 10kts through 11z
Friday, then becoming westerly. Some gusts to 20kts possible
from 20z Thu-01z Fri. From 15z Friday onward, northwest
10-20kts. LLWS 07z-11z Friday 250@40kts.

Winds for KMCK, southwest 5-10kts through 20z, then south-
southeast 10-20kts. By 07z Friday, becoming light/variable. By
12z, northwest 10-20kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN


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