916
FXUS62 KGSP 290458
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend will continue through mid week as high pressure
remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is
expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front is expected to approach
the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms
to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...No sigfnt changes to the going fcst. An off-shore
sfc high continues to ridge across the area making for dry conds
outside of an area of low clouds across the srn BR escarpment. These
clouds will linger and become a little more widespread thru the
morning as upslope flow continues. Not a great fog threat this
morning as the sfc-layer decouples yet remains weakly mixed and
relatively dry. However, cold air drainage will likely instigate fog
development, possibly dense, across the Little TN Valley within
the sw/rn NC mtns.

Otherwise, heights will fall across the region during the near
term...especially the latter half of the period, as upper ridge axis
progresses to the East Coast...downstream of a trough axis advancing
east of the Miss River on Monday. As deep layer ridging moves east
of the area tonight into Monday, low level flow is forecast to
become increasingly SW, which is expected to result in less cloud
cover tonight into Monday. Decent radiational cooling conditions
should follow tonight, and min temps are expected to cool to just
slightly-above-climo. Elevated near-surface moisture could allow for
some patchy fog development, particularly in the climatologically
favorable locations in the mountain valleys. Sunnier conditions
combined with increasing thickness values should allow max temps on
Monday to warm to around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:45 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge over the East Coast will still
be in place as we move into the short term, with the trough that has
been causing all the problems in the Southern Plains lifting and
damping as it pushes east. Occluded front will approach the
Appalachians at the start of the period, weakening on the southern
end as it competes with the hefty ridge. Pops move into western
zones before daybreak and ramp up during the afternoon hours,
especially over the mountains, but the high elevations really tears
the low level features of the front up. Very little deep layer shear
to work with (not even 30kt collocated with the best instability)
and even the more unstable NAM keeps SBCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. So
for now, general thunder looks good, but can`t rule out that one or
two may be stronger to marginally severe. Temps should be several
degrees above normal on Tuesday with southerly flow still around the
surface high off the Atlantic, even with the shortwave and front
coming through.

The shortwave passes through quickly and ridging builds right back
in on the back edge. Under full sun, temperature will climb a few
degrees higher for highs on Wednesday, probably a good 10 or
so degrees warmer than seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Sunday: Upper ridge is still in place as we move
into the extended Wednesday night into Thursday, with another
shortwave diving out of the Rockies into the Plains. Increasing
disagreement in how this system is handled in the global models, but
general picture shows another front pushing across the center of the
country Thursday and towards our area Friday. Should see another
uptick in temperatures on Thursday as the ridge strengthens, with
pops moving back in on Friday. For now this front looks a little
stronger than the early-week front, at least as far as instability
goes, so this will have to be monitored in case this trend holds in
future runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Surface ridging will dominate the pattern
thru the TAF period and help make for VFR conds all sites. Low cloud
development will be confined across the srn NC mtns, as LCLs remain
quite dry. No big VSBY issue either thru the morning hours. Winds
round the sfc ridge and align generally sw/ly to s/ly with low-end
gust possible mainly at KAVL and KHKY this afternoon.

Outlook: A frontal system could bring a round showers and storms to
the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated diurnal
convection on Wednesday and Thursday. The next front could bring
better coverage of showers and storms on Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR/JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...SBK