202
FXHW60 PHFO 301300
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
300 AM HST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through mid
week, while lighter trades over the western end of the state allow
for some leeward land and sea breezes. Relatively dry weather
will persist through Wednesday, with a few showers affecting
windward areas overnight into the early morning hours and
developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will return Wednesday night
and Thursday, bringing a transition over to more typical trade
wind weather. The trades will become breezy Thursday night through
early next week, and the trade wind showers will likely increase
in coverage and intensity as a disturbance aloft moves over the
islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure is
located around 325 miles northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high
is centered 1750 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate trade
winds prevail over the eastern islands, while lighter trades
remain over the western end of the state. Infrared satellite
imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to
mostly cloudy conditions. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered
showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in
leeward locales. Main short term focus continues to revolve
around trade wind trends and rain chances.

A weak trough of low pressure northwest of the islands will
remain nearly stationary today, with little change expected in
the overall wind forecast. Moderate trades will hold over the
eastern end of the state, while lighter trades prevail over the
western islands, allowing for leeward sea and land breezes. We
should see the trades start to rebound from east to west tonight
and Wednesday, as the trough west of the islands begins to shift
slowly westward. Moderate to locally breezy trades should
overspread the island chain Wednesday night and Thursday, with
breezy conditions expected Thursday night through early next week
as a pair of highs consolidate to the distant north.

As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions
should generally prevail across the island chain through
Wednesday. Brief passing showers will be possible in windward
areas overnight into the early morning hours, with a few showers
developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. We
should transition over to a more typical windward and mauka
focused trade wind pattern Wednesday night and Thursday, with
wetter trade wind conditions looking more likely to develop
Friday through early next week as upper troughing sets up over the
state and gradually closes off into an upper low in the vicinity
of the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Hawaii remains wedged between surface high pressure far northeast
of the state and a trough to the northwest. This pattern will
allow light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow to persist
today.

Expect scattered showers along the windward portions of the
islands and isolated showers elsewhere. Brief periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibility may occur with this activity, though not
expecting anything widespread. Land breezes are forecast to
transition to sea breezes along portions of the leeward coasts
by late this morning or early afternoon.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast trade winds will persist
today as high pressure remains far northeast of the area and a
trough holds in place northwest of Kauai. Trade winds look to
strengthen tonight into the moderate to locally strong range as
high pressure will build far north of the state through the rest
of the week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely initially be
issued for the typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui
tonight and may be expanded to additional waters Friday or
Saturday as the high pressure north of the state strengthens.

Tiny surf will persist along north facing shores through Friday,
with a small pulse of northwest swell expected this weekend. A
small long period south-southwest swell will peak today, and
slowly ease Wednesday. Otherwise, small background level surf on
south shores for the rest of the week. Choppy surf along east
facing shores will decline over the next couple of days, then
gradually increase as trade winds rebuild. Rough east shore surf
will likely rise above seasonal average Friday into the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Shigesato