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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As onshore flow continues to pump in moisture from the Gulf, the
pattern of warm & humid nights will persist. We`ll be on a bit of a
hot streak as we are at the beginning of an extended period in which
we will not drop below the 70°F mark during the overnight hours. You
might be saying "oh it`s Houston so that`s normal". That`s kind of
right...but also our normal temperature for this time of the year is
right at 60°F, so we`ll consistently be at least 10°F above that for
most of the week. While there is a cold front moving through Texas
currently, don`t expect that to bring any relief to the mugginess.
An upper level low will continue to drift eastward through the
Central Plains in the early morning hours. In the late morning
hours, it begins to move northeastward which takes away the push
that the front would need to push through our area. The end result
is a stalling frontal boundary to our west, but we will see a surge
of moisture as a result of convergence along the boundary.

PW values rise up to 1.6"-1.9" across the Brazos Valley.
Showers/storms look to advance beyond the frontal boundary with
portions of Brazos Valley/Piney Woods catching the tail-end of this
line. This`ll likely just be isolated rain showers when they reach
our area as a robust subsidence inversion layer from 850-750mb
should prevent anything of significance from developing. It`s worth
noting that a 35-45 kt LLJ remains overhead throughout the day
(weakens to 25-35 kt by the afternoon), so expect breezy southerly
wind again today. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
low to mid 80s. With winds becoming light tonight paired with dew
point depressions of 0-2°F, there is potential for patchy fog to
develop especially along and south of I-10. Overnight lows will be
in the low 70s once again, and we may be warm enough to come close
to a few record high minimum temperatures.

The flow aloft at mid-levels deamplifies on Wednesday and becomes
more zonal. At 850mb, the flow aloft remains southwesterly allowing
850mb temperatures to reach the 19-21°C range which is near the 99th
percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). Resultingly, temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s for all except those
along the coast. Coastal areas will top out in the low 80s. Going
into Wednesday night, there will be another surge of moisture with
PW values climbing to the 1.5"-1.8" range. There`ll also be an
embedded shortwave passing through as well that could provide enough
lift for some isolated rain showers, but a subsidence inversion
layer persists along with drier air aloft. So, I`ve kept PoPs
limited to 10% for now. I`ll give y`all one guess on what the low
temperatures for Wednesday night are...♬*cue final jeopardy music*♬
"What is the low 70s?" is correct! Your prize is the knowledge that
today is National Wear Your Pajamas to Work Day!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Warm temperatures will persist until a cold front moves across the area
in a Saturday night through Sunday morning time period (some rain is
possible Thursday afternoon/evening and again on Friday night in the
Brazos Valley-Piney Woods areas as weak disturbances skirt our northern
counties). Thursday`s and Friday`s inland highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s (coastal highs in the upper 70s to around 80). Saturday could
be a couple degrees cooler (inland highs in an upper 70s to mid 80s
range; coastal areas still in the upper 70s to around 80) as the cold
front eventually enters the area and brings us increasing clouds and
rain chances. The area`s best rain chances are Saturday night through
Sunday morning in association with the front, and we will also cool
back down with Sunday`s lows in the 50s/60s and Sunday`s highs in the
60/70s. In the wake of the front (into Sunday night and Monday), some
lingering showers are possible mainly near the coast and offshore as
weak disturbances move across the area. Expect cool overnight lows
Sunday night (mainly 50s) and a slightly warmer Monday (mid 70s to
around 80).

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR CIGs ongoing this afternoon. Winds have (for the most part)
relaxed; however, still have a few sites across the area gusting
to above 20 kts. Isolated showers possible this afternoon for
CLL/UTS terminals. MVFR CIGs will continue into the evening hours
with light winds contributing to potential IFR CIGs and patchy
fog. Decreased VSBYs will be possible along and south of the I-10
corridor overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Moderate south to southeast winds and elevated seas will persist into
the middle of the week. Both winds and seas will slightly diminish during
the second half of the week. Wednesday night through Saturday, some
fog could develop in the area. The next cold front is scheduled to push
off the coast this weekend with northeast winds developing in its wake.
Currently, the best timing for showers and possible thunderstorms with
this front will be Saturday night through Sunday morning.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Only one River Flood Warning remains in effect as of early Tuesday
morning. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) is still on an
upward trend heading towards its crest in minor flood stage, and it
will remain in minor flood stage through at least the end of the
work week. The River Flood Warning for the Navasota River at
Normangee (NGET2) was cancelled last night as it finally fell back
into action stage after numerous days in minor flood stage. We`ll be
keeping an eye on the Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) as its
secondary crest looks to approach minor flood stage towards the end
of the week. There are a few other gauges that have crested into
action stage along the Brazos and Trinity Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Has the first half of April (April 1-15) been warmer or cooler than
normal?

For the College Station area, their average temperatures of 70.2 degrees
is 3.1 degrees above normal and ranks as their 26th warmest on record
(1st place is 75.2 degrees set in 1927 with records dating back to 1889).

For the Houston area, their average temperatures of 72.0 degrees is
3.7 degrees above normal and ranks as their 18th warmest on record
(1st place is 75.8 degrees set in 1965 with records dating back to 1890).

For Houston Hobby, their average temperatures of 72.7 degrees is 3.7
degrees above normal and ranks as their 9th warmest on record (1st place
is 76.0 degrees set in 1965 with records dating back to 1931).

For the Galveston area, their average temperatures of 71.5 degrees is
1.4 degrees above normal and ranks as their 18th warmest on record (1st
place is 76.1 degrees set in 2012 with records dating back to 1875).

For Palacios, their average temperatures of 71.5 degrees is 1.6 degrees
above normal and ranks as their 17th warmest on record (1st place is
75.2 degrees set in 2001 with records dating back to 1943).

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  72  86  72 /  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  85  73  87  73 /  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  79  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42