Text Products for FWS Issued by ILM

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FNUS72 KILM 161058
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Army A23...Army
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
658 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather
through midweek. Today, a weak front is forecasted to drop south
into southeast NC late this morning/midday. At this time, the front
is expected to remain north of the forecast point maintaining SW
winds, which will turn a bit southerly with sea breeze passage
between 12PM and 2PM.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Max mixing hgt......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (11937 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............16.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   0   3   12  21  30  29  28  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............70  74  77  79  80  81  80  78  77
RH..............68  62  54  51  49  49  50  53  57
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   10  11  11  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  12  13  13  14  14  14
Stability.......A   A   A   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............15  13  12  13  16  13  14  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.10  9   10  10  12  10  10  9   8
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 008 008 008 008 008 008 007

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 14 mph shifting to the southeast 14
                    to 15 mph late in the evening, then shifting to
                    the south 10 to 13 mph overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4081 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............5.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........26  24  22  26  29  33  33  35  38  38  35  33
Weather cov.....                                            PTY
Weather type....                                            FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  72  68  67  66  65  64  63  63  63  63  62
RH..............62  68  75  78  82  84  86  87  90  91  90  92
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  9   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  14  15  15  14  13  10  10  10  10
Stability.......B   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........2   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6
ADI.............13  6   6   6   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6   6   6   6   7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...007 007 009 009 009 014 014 014 013 013 013 011

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (26038 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............33.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........34     38     41     50     64     77
Weather cov.....PATCHY PATCHY
Weather type....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............62     64     73     78     78     76
RH..............92     87     71     65     62     67
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 4   SW 6   SW 7   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.6      7      10     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1100   1300   1400   1300
Transport wind..SW 10  W 14   SW 13  W 15   SW 17  SW 20
Stability.......F      A      B      B      C      C
LVORI...........6      4      3      3      1      3
ADI.............5      13     18     26     30     33
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4      7      13     20     24     25
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.11  30.14  30.14  30.12  30.11  30.11

$$
Forecaster...Oliva
Requested by...TK Crawford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411076.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Trent.k.Crawford.civ@army.mil
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
