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000
FXUS63 KILX 161917
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
217 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- South-southeast winds sustained at 25-30 mph gusting 35-45 mph
  this afternoon will kick up dust that could reduce visibilities
  in spots. Drivers should exercise caution, being careful not to
  drive into an area of significantly diminished visibilities.

- There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather with
  widespread thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main
  threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a tornado is
  possible mainly west of the IL River this evening. Have
  multiple ways to receive warnings, and know where you will take
  shelter.

- There is a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe weather with
  thunderstorms on Thursday, with damaging gusts and large hail
  being the primary hazards once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows around 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE which
has developed quickly over the past couple hours with the breaks
in clouds. Fortunately, 0-3 km shear values are not particularly
impressive - only around 25-30 kt - which should limit severe
potential somewhat. However, we`ll need to keep an eye on the
most persistent updrafts since mid level lapse rates will be steep
and hence conducive to marginally severe hail, especially after
6pm when the LLJ (and wind fields aloft in general) begins to
restrengthen to increase shear as the sfc low draws nearer. The
CAMs do suggest the second wave developing behind the first
(north central MO/south central IA) will be more potent given the
50-60 kt 0-6km shear there. This broken line of storms, however,
will begin to meet convective inhibition with decoupling of the
boundary layer and slightly lower shear as it races into our area
between 6 and 9 pm, which the CAMs (though not always accurate)
agree will cause it to dissipate. If this holds together, areas
along and west of the IL River would have a tornado, very large
hail, and damaging wind risk, though at this time guidance is
leaning towards it falling apart. There will be some pretty feisty
winds through the evening though: this afternoon with deep mixing,
this evening with showers mixing down stronger winds aloft, and
later this evening behind those showers across our west before the
sun sets. Current south-southeast winds are sustained at nearly
30 mph and gusting to around 40 or slightly higher across most of
the area, and there have been some visibility dips where dust is
getting kicked up given dry soils and any agricultural tilling.
Drivers should exercise caution, being careful not to drive into
an area of blowing dust that`s significantly reducing visibility.

Once the remains of the second wave dissipate or depart our area to
the north late this evening, we should get a break in precip
overnight and remain seasonably mild with temps hovering in the 60s.
The cold front will finally cross the area tomorrow morning,
bringing an abrupt wind shift and seasonably cooler temps with
afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s north of I-70 - a little
warmer further south where a drier airmass (and lack of clouds) will
foster a more rapid response to sfc heating. Given the proximity of
the upper low which deterministic guidance suggests will slowly lift
across WI throughout the day, temps aloft will remain cool across
our north where low level lapse rates would be steep enough to
favor some weak instability leading to a couple showers, though
most of the area should be dry during the day.

Tomorrow night into Thursday morning, a warm front will lift north
into our area ahead of a sfc low that`ll pull a cold front through
Thursday afternoon/evening. The specific track of this low is in
question, though along and south of its warm front steep mid level
lapse rates and curved hodographs would imply a hail (and possibly
tornado) threat with thunderstorms; there isn`t a ton of mid level
dry air on soundings, but steep low level lapse rates that develop
if breaks in cloud cover optimize sfc heating could favor gusty
winds, particularly if storms merge into a line along the cold
front. We`ll be keeping an eye on this possible severe weather risk,
though at this time, the highest probabilities (15-30% ...
corresponding to a level 2 of 5 "slight" risk) from SPC are Clay to
Lawrence Counties and south on Thursday. Behind that front Thursday
night, conditions turn cooler, and then Friday night into Saturday a
reinforcing cold front will bring temps to below normal (average
highs, for reference, are mid to upper 60s); NBM only gives a 30-40%
and 20-30% chance for highs of 60 or warmer on Saturday and Sunday,
respectively.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through most of the TAF period, with
some deterioration along and north of I-74 after roughly 12-14z
(7-9am) Wednesday as MVFR ceilings move in from the northwest.
There will also be a period of reduced visibilities and perhaps
ceilings with thunderstorms this evening. South-southeast winds
outside of storms will be gusting upwards of 30 kt this afternoon,
but could briefly gust 40 kt or higher in storms which could also
produce hail and frequent lightning. Winds will shift abruptly to
west-southwesterly tomorrow morning with a cold front crossing the
area from west to east.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$