Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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447 FXUS64 KJAN 070551 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1251 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Rest of tonight... Evening water vapor/RAP/synoptic analysis indicate deep longwave trough ejecting into the Plains, with the cold core/sfc low occluding in the Dakotas. This environment has led to a ongoing severe weather outbreak in the Plains. GOES East satellite imagery indicates deep cold cloud tops, while over our region more benign mean ridging/slightly above climatological norms in moist profiles exists across the Gulf Coast (i.e. PWs around 1.5-1.75 inches). A subtle shortwave provided the impetus for the aftn-early evening showers & isolated storms but those have winded down for the night under the suppression of the ridge at the sfc & aloft. With southwesterly low-level jet expected to increase, warm southerly return flow will support another night of seasonable warmth (i.e. upper 60s east of I-55 to low 70s to the west), low stratus & patchy fog in the Pine Belt. Updates will be out shortly. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 This Evening through Tuesday: Despite SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg indicating an unstable air mass across our forecast area, a shortwave ridge aloft has been suppressing convection and limiting deep-layer wind shear so far today. A trough however is apparent over East Texas on water vapor satellite imagery, and this has helped at least a few isolated storms develop to the west. Isolated to scattered showers or storms are still possible through early this evening, but organized severe weather is not expected at this time. Into tomorrow, a trough swinging across the Plains is expected to shift a plume of better instability into our area, and showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in eastern Mississippi during the afternoon/evening hours. With increased flow aloft, there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in this activity. /NF/ Tues Night through Sunday: Lingering rainfall from the daytime will gradually come to an end for extreme northern and northeastern portions of the CWA as the weak shortwave exits the area. Warm/humid conditions will begin to filter in thanks to southerly flow, causing dewpoints to reach the lower 70s and above-average high temperatures in the the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the mid-week. A more active pattern is expected for Wednesday night through early Friday morning. A low pressure center is expected to progress eastward towards Great Lakes, in turn pushing cold front towards the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a warm/moist airmass will be in place to help promote showers and thunderstorms. Along with sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the lower 70s), bulk shear values of 50-60 kts and Surface CAPE values of 3000 to near 4000 J/kg will help support organized convection and severe weather potential Wednesday night through Thursday night. A "Slight" and "Marginal" risk for severe weather will continue to be advertised in the HWO graphics. The aforementioned cold front is expected to push through the CWA on Friday, bringing rain chances to an end by the afternoon hours. To close out the extended forecast, post frontal passage along with a surface high pressure center will bring below-seasonal to seasonal temperatures and drier air to the area through the weekend. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Have maintained forecast for widespread MVFR/IFR category stratus through early morning in this persistent, warm/humid, southerly flow pattern. Given the stronger boundary layer winds being observed and forecast, fog is not expected to be a significant threat. All sites should observe sub-vfr conditions until mixing brings improvements later in the morning. VFR conditions will prevail Tuesday aftn/evng at all sites, but a few TSRA will be possible and could have brief impacts, especially the GTR/MEI corridor. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 90 71 87 / 0 20 30 50 Meridian 70 92 70 90 / 10 20 30 60 Vicksburg 71 90 70 87 / 0 10 30 40 Hattiesburg 72 90 73 91 / 0 10 10 40 Natchez 71 90 71 88 / 0 10 20 30 Greenville 73 89 71 85 / 10 20 70 30 Greenwood 72 89 70 85 / 10 30 70 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF/SW/EC/