761
FXUS62 KJAX 121854
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
254 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak high pressure ridging is still the dominant feature today
allowing the Atlantic seabreeze to make its way inland shifting
coastal winds to easterly. The sea-breeze will continue to make
its way inland to around the US 301 corridor, bringing with it
winds around 10-15 mph before calming down after sunset. Ample
cloud cover has kept temperatures down into the mid 80s this
afternoon. SE GA has a slight chance (10-20%) of some light
showers blowing through early this evening and again early Monday
morning. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s inland with
coastal temperatures hanging around the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

An active weather pattern starts Monday with a warm front lifting
up across the area Monday through Monday night. Forcing associated
with shortwave perturbations expected to move across parts of the
southeast states, but by and large most of this synoptic forcing
will extend just to our west and over parts of GA, including southeast
GA. However, the best low level forcing Monday afternoon appears
to be along a sfc trough across the inland northeast FL zones due
to breezy southeast flow over eastern FL zones of near 15-20 mph
up against west coast sea breeze that pushes to I-75 corridor.
Here, we expect scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms
to break out and continue into the early evening hours. Further
north into southeast GA, the instability will tend to be weaker so
more scattered shower activity and a few thunderstorms. The overlap
of moderate bulk shear of about 55 kt amid MLCAPE of up to 1000-1500
J/kg could easily support a couple of stronger storms in northeast
FL as well as parts of southeast GA, with gusty winds, hail, and
localized heavy rainfall. SPC has parts of our area in a marginal
risk of severe storms. Stay tuned! More southerly flow over
northeast FL will give support for max temps in the mid 80s to 90
deg and then generally mid 80s over southeast GA.

Monday night, with diurnal cooling, any thunderstorm activity will
tend to weaken and probably become more isolated. However, breezy
southerly flow, upper level divergence and plenty of moisture
will support scattered to numerous areas of rain/shower activity.
Some locally heavy rainfall remains possible mainly over southeast
GA. Patchy fog is possible but winds will tend to be too mixed to
support any dense fog. Meanwhile to our west, a cold front will
be marching eastward over the lower MS Valley where stronger
forcing and thunderstorm activity will be. Min temps will be very
mild in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday, the warm front looks to be across southeast GA and
continue to lift north-northeast while the cold front will moving
across the FL panhandle and over southwest GA. Generally looks
like a better setup for isolated to scattered strong or severe
storms given the wind fields and available instability ahead of
the cold front. SPC has placed most of our forecast area in a
marginal risk of severe storms. Inhibiting factors for strong and
severe storms will be cloud cover and areas/widespread rain. In
addition to the severe storm threat, heavy rainfall is likely in
some locations given parallel flow to the front and higher than
moisture (fcst PWATs near 1.8 inches vs climatology of about 1.3
inches).

Tuesday night, the cold front appears to be located across south
central GA to the western FL panhandle. With the expected relatively
slow progress of the cold front, lingering isolated severe storm
threat and locally heavy rainfall threat will persist. For now, it
appears this will primarily be southern 2/3rds of the area. Once
again, warmer than average overnight lows are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

The cold front is located over northeast FL Wednesday morning,
only gradually moving southward. The GFS shows the bulk of the
moisture along the front over northeast FL so continued moderate
to heavy rainfall threat persists in the morning there and could
last until mid aftn. Drier air will arrive finally be late afternoon
into the evening as the mean mid level trough axis will move through
bringing some subsidence to the area. The front looks to settle
just south of the region Wednesday night, with more fair weather
during this same period. Subsidence and dry air prevails on Thursday
as upper level ridge will be over the area. The next mid/upper
level trough approaches from the west Thursday night and will allow
a weak warm front to lift up into the region. Rain chances may
increase again during the Fri-Sat time frame as increased ascent
and moisture ratchets up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions for the TAF period with bases lowering to 5,000 ft
around 15z Monday as a warm front moves from the south into the
region. The easterly sea-breeze has made its way in to NE FL
coastal sites with winds of 8-10 knots. Winds will die down around
01z to being light and variable at all locations. VCSH were left
out of the later TAF times due to higher chance percentages
occurring after 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Weak high pressure is still the dominating feature today with
some slight chances (10-20%) of some light rain occurring over SE
GA local waters later this afternoon. Winds for the onshore sea-
breeze have picked up a bit with winds 8-10 mph. Onshore winds
will strengthen Monday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward.
Showers and storms will spread out over our local waters Monday
afternoon and into the evening as the warm front lifts through the
local waters. Tuesday, The front stalls just north over the local
waters as several rounds of heavy showers and storms push across
the area through Wednesday. Improving conditions are expected on
Thursday as offshore flow develops along with lower rainfall
chances.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and into the
beginning of the week for all area beaches.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

From Monday to Wednesday, forecast storm total rainfall amounts
are from 2 to 3 inches for southeast GA to about 1 to 2 inches for
northeast FL. This may be enough to raise river levels a bit but
for now no minor river flooding is forecast. The high- end
potential total rain is over 5 inches in some locations, mainly
favoring nrn half of the area, so we will need to monitor trends
in the guidance for further updates to the forecast rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  83  67  85 /  30  70  80  90
SSI  68  81  70  85 /  20  60  80  90
JAX  65  85  70  90 /  10  60  60  80
SGJ  68  84  72  90 /  10  50  50  70
GNV  66  88  69  89 /   0  70  40  80
OCF  68  91  70  92 /   0  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$