Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
683 FXUS62 KKEY 030238 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1038 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Currently - A run-of-the-mill high centered off the Carolina Coast extends westward across the Gulf Coast states and maintaining moderate to fresh broadly easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave ridge reaches northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid Atlantic while a trough stretches southwestward across the Bahamas. Consequently, there is some lower to mid level ridging aligned just to our west. Precipitable water is modest at 1.18 inches and there is a hint of weak inhibition based down around 925 mb. This along with weak backing through the boundary layer has limited convective activity. With that said, a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms have managed to shove off the South Florida into our deep gulf waters. The healthy surface flow has held up temperatures this evening. Temperature readings are near 80 with dew points near 70. Short Term Update - While there is some movement taking place at the synoptic scale, for Keys weather, things will effectively be static. The diurnal contribution to the late evenings subtle wind surge will dissipate, allowing winds to relax slightly. The persistent easterly flow will hold overnight lows up in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points will hold steady near 70. Forecast soundings indicate a slight increase in lower level moisture with a weakening and slightly lifting inhibition. Low level lift will remain limited, but there are a number of upstream marine boundaries. On balance, the above justifies holding on to slight chance of showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 A ridge across the far southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through the overnight period. Expect winds to slacken some. Cautions remain in effect for Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. Have refreshed first period wind wording, adjusting for the expected wind evolution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. With that said, a few showers cannot be ruled out. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate and loosely out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest