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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161144
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
16/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE GULF COAST PROVIDING S TO SW WINDS
5-10 KT FM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS AFTN CONVECTION OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACRS
CNTL AND SRN LA COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AEX...LFT OR ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEM TO HAVE PUSHED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BOUNDARY OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ANY INITIATION FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...VERY SMALL POP
CHANCES...MAINLY ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WILL BE CONTINUED.

A LITTLE BIT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED CAP IS SEEN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY...AS STRONGER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SO WILL GO AHEAD TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE BACK TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY OVER
NORTHEAST ZONES...AS WEAK SURFACE TROF NEARS THAT AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN EXPANDS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME WARMING AND
CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS...TO HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE RESULT IS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AS ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS STAY NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA.
THEREFORE...MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVE LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  92  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  93  72  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  92  74  93  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24