National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 150433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 15/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS...ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...LOOK TO STAY UP
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...THAT
ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
KBPT SITE AND TAKEN THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE KLCH SITE.
GRADIENT LOOKS LESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOME PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR TYPE VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLFT/KARA...AND
WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 15/09Z-13Z TO COVER THIS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND WILL HAVE VCSH FOR KBPT AFTER 15/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED MOVING TO THE EAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. VIS/IR
SATELLITE INDICATE LIGHT CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SKIES BUT
FOR MOST PART...TODAY WAS A NICE SUNNY DAY. THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE DRYING
AND MIN RH`S DROPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH A FEW SITES JUST
BELOW THAT. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD WARM THE AREA OVERNIGHT BY A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN LAST NIGHT.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATED AN MCS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUT SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME STREAMER SHOWERS AND OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. CARRIED 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA IN
CASE THE MCS MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECASTED.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WARM AND DRY. POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT...
CHOSE TO WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INTRODUCING MUCH POP.
COULD BREAK INTO THE 90`S THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS THE NORTHER AREAS
OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INJECTING MOISTURE INTO
THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL A WEAK CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WAVES WILL BE
1 TO 2 IN THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AND 2 TO 3 OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  80  65  81  69 /   0  10  20  10  10
KBPT  64  79  66  80  70 /   0  20  20  10  10
KAEX  58  80  62  82  67 /   0  10  20  20  10
KLFT  62  80  63  81  68 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
