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000
FXUS64 KLCH 160249
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS SKIRTED THE NORTHERN ZONES AS IT MOVED THROUGH. ATTENTION
NOW TURNS TO SEVERE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND
THE METROPLEX. SOME HIRES MESO SCALE MODELS WANT TO CONGEAL THE
ACTIVITY INTO A LINE AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS IT. THAT IS THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF A WOODVILLE TO LEESVILLE LINE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DOWN TOWARD A MARKSVILLE TO JUST NORTH OF BEAUMONT
LINE...IN CASE ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER MORE THAN WHAT IS
ANTICIPATED.

OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP AND WIND
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND BLEND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND SO HAVE DROPPED VCSH FROM THE TAF SITES. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS AS NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE
PROJECTING A CEILING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH BEAUMONT DROPPING TO
AROUND 900 FEET. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND RETURNING TO VFR.

69

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A PAIR OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST
ONE IS HELPING PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NW BUT WITH
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WITH THE 2ND VORT TO ITS WEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST KEEPING A PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY AIR NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT
AFTER ALL AS COVERAGE OF RETURNS ON RADAR HAS BEEN STEADILY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MAINLY OVER THE LA ZONES. BUT
LOOKING BACK OVER CNTL TX BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTION FIRING
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE-
BOUND TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. STILL CARRYING
SLIM POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BEYOND TOMORROW NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEAK
OF. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE SERVING AS A CAP WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS TO BASICALLY NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WITH MAXES NEAR
90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AM KEEPING 20ISH POPS TO COVER.

MARINE...
MAINLY MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT GRADIENT PERSISTS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TX/SRN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  81  70  83  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  68  82  70  83  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  84  68  87  69 /  30  20  10  10  10
KLFT  64  82  70  85  70 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$