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000
FXUS64 KLCH 130447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE TO CALM WINDS WILL
BECOME SE AT 5 TO 10 DURING MONDAY MORNING AND SOUTH BY SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
E TO SE MONDAY AT 5 TO AROUND 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING NE
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...AND AN UPSTREAM VORT/JET MAX
PLUNGING INTO ITS WRN FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER
THE BAJA BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.

AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE ARKLATEX...THEN BENDS SW THROUGH CENTRAL TX. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERALL...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FCST THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND AT LEAST SOME
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD. WHILE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...THESE FACTORS IN
CONCERT WITH THE STILL WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS...SHOULD KEEP
LOWS ON THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ERN CONUS TROF. A GRADUAL
MOISTENING/MODERATING TREND WILL ENSUE.

THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE BAJA WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO EJECT OUT. CONSENSUS OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER WRN
ZONES AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH THEY DIVERGE ON
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS/CMC
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROF...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH THIS ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  81  59  82  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
KBPT  57  81  58  81  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
KAEX  50  82  55  85  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  55  81  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$