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000
FXUS64 KLCH 190505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ALREADY AT KBPT AND KLCH...AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THE STRATUS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER N GULF WITH
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS STREAMING NW OVER OLD MEXICO INTO SE
TX. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING
LOWER/MID 70S. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BY MID EVENING AND PERSISTING UNTIL MID SUNDAY MORNING.
LLJ PROGGED TO BE MORE DIRECTIONALLY ALIGNED WITH SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN STRONGER AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA HAS LIMITED
CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...WITH SKIES NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ACRS ALL BUT
THE ERN CWA. THIS HAS ALLOWED AFTN TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ACRS
PORTIONS OF SE TX...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACRS SW/CNTL LA AND COASTAL
SE TX. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER...CONDITIONS ARE MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES AS SLY WINDS USHER GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING ACRS FLA INTO THE NRN GULF.

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE MOVES
EAST. CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
SIMILAR AS TODAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS INCREASING BENEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN
FM THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE. BY MONDAY...SWLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE SRN/CNTL
PLAINS NUDGING THE UPR RIDGE FURTHER EAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY FLOW TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION. MOST OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA...SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH AT BEST ONLY A SLT TO LOW END CHC.
THE UPR TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A SFC FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT
WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACRS TX. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  20
KBPT  73  82  73  82 /  10  10  10  20
KAEX  71  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  20
KLFT  72  85  72  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$