000
FXUS64 KLCH 191507
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STATIONALRY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NE TX THRU N LA. SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES ACROSS C AND S LA ALONG THE U.S. 190 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
...ROUGHLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS.

THE NEXT PERTUBATION WITHIN THE TROF (SHOWS UP NICELY VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) IS MOVING SE ACROSS E TX AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LIFT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS C AND S LA MAINLY N
OF I-10...MAINLY SCT ELSEWHERE. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER...LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS C LA TO THE MID 80S...AND KEPT UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWER ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS HOURLY TEMPS
AS WELL. OTHER FORECAST PARAMTERS ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH PERIODIC LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS LIKELY. KAEX WILL
EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CEILINGS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO START THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SE BY TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW. WITHIN THE MEAN
ERN CONUS TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...WITH ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE OVER WESTERN KS/OK.

AT THE SFC...WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST TO WEST ALONG I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA...THEN BENDS SW TWD
AUSTIN TX. TO THE SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS FL
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

RADAR HAD BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. BOTH INTENSITY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT COVERAGE HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THEN...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WOODVILLE TO BUNKIE LINE. A SECONDARY AREA IS
NOTED OVER COASTAL SW LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC ON WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR GIVEN MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DRIVERS...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE AT SOMETHING OF
A MAXIMUM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AS THE INITIAL AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL IS ALSO SHUNTED EAST. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND ALBEIT WEAKER
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AND THE DIFFERENCE IN POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON IS A RELATIVELY MINOR 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
90...BUT COULD SWAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW PENDING RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TX FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL GET CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS/TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND CLIMO POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE...AND
THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS GENERALLY WELL COVERED...SO FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  10  30
KBPT  87  76  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  10  30
KAEX  85  71  91  72  91 /  60  20  30  10  30
KLFT  87  74  90  74  91 /  50  30  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$